NFL Picks - Week 7

Tampa Bay -2.5

Kansas City -5.5

In the previous week's matchups, most predictions were on point, with outcomes aligning closely with expectations. Notable blowouts came from Jacksonville and Detroit, and while the KC game required a bit of luck, it ultimately fell within the spread. The only outlier was the Eagles; their offense struggled, but the defense held its ground. There is no lesson here, I would bet the Eagles on that spot any time. Additionally, when a high-performing offense meets a formidable defense, as in the case of SF against Cleveland, caution is advised, especially when considering that Cleveland boasted the 2nd-ranked pass DVOA prior to the game.

Tampa Bay -2.5

In this matchup between the Falcons and the Buccaneers, the Bucs hold a clear advantage. Analyzing the DVOA for passing offense and the opponent's passing defense, we see a significant disparity. The Falcons have a 26% below-average passing defense, while the Bucs boast a passing offense that's 14% above average. Furthermore, the Falcons' passing offense, led by Ridder, has shown inconsistency with interceptions piling up. On the defensive front, Tampa Bay is the superior unit, with the ability to cover by less than a field goal. This, coupled with the Bucs' home advantage, makes them a strong pick to cover the 2.5-point spread. 

Kansas City -5.5

In this Chargers vs Chiefs matchup, we have a contrast of short rest for the Chargers against the Chiefs' extended break. Rain is also expected to be a factor. Historically, Herbert keeps games against the Chiefs tight and tends to cover. Keep an eye out for Frank Clark's potential return and the addition of Mecole Hardman could be what the Chiefs offense needs to be more explosive. The pivotal analytical point is the Chiefs' impressive 36% above-average passing offense facing off against the Chargers' 11% below-average passing defense. This could be a high-scoring affair with the Chiefs holding a significant advantage in the passing game.

SNF

This week, we continue the hitting on road team favorite by less than or equal to a TD. Those are juicy and historically hit more than miss. Plus this week, their trend is backed up by analysis as you'll see later. Miami should be a pick based on DVOA passing offense of 60% against the Eagles pass D which surprisingly is below average. There are so many injuries on both sides (Lane Johnson, Xavier Brooks, etc.) that it makes this great game a flip of a coin. Given it's on SNF, if you force me, I go with the stronger Dolphins passing offense.

MNF

The Packers, rejuvenated after a bye week, are benefiting from an improved injury situation. The most glaring contrast lies in... for this and two other solid picks, visit rokfin.com/NFLpickles