NFL Machine Learning Picks - Divisional Round

Divisional playoffs have arrived and we’re down to 8 teams. Each of the games' geeky stat comparison can be found here for the NFC and the AFC Divisional Games.

First let me review last week. Smart to stay away from both divisional AFC games that stayed close, even with backup QBs. SF was money but we were sweating in the first half. The Giants was also easy money as their reinforced defense played well and kept the game within reach. Tampa was bad in hindsight. They didn’t pressure the QB, their ATS this year has been horrible, and their one-dimensional passing game didn’t last against Dallas’ tough D.

On to the divisional games. 

Kansas City -8.5

This boiled down to as a bet for one last blowout in the playoffs. Although many think the Jags have been playing well, they didn’t see the Titans game or the first half of the Chargers game. Now they face a defense that started slow but is playing much better.

• Recipe for a blowout, bad defense 30th ranked against the best passing offense in the league by a lot.
• Mahomes >>>Lawrence. MVP season for Mahomes.. 
• KC 3rd in adjusted sack rate can pressure the QB much better than JAX can
• My only worry is that most of the money is on JAX. Could be a situational play like home favorite by more than a TD doesn’t cover well during playoffs, idk.
• KC won by 10 on Week 11 despite 3 turnovers by KC and 0 for JAX
• Going against the models here. Data crunching suggests this game stays closer. 
• The rest of the divisional picks can be found here.