NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 4

Wow, what a week! Carolina's #1 defense continues to dominate but will now face a top 10 offense in Dallas. They are 3-0 ATS at the top with Dallas and Denver. The Rams (2-1 ATS) aren't the best defense but they are the #1 ranked offense so far. Cleveland, Arizona, and Denver all ranked on the top 5 overall! Who would've known? It's still early and there's a lot of variability. We had Green Bay and the Saints to win as underdogs and cover last week but missed on Seattle. 

This week the models detected 4 games with bias and opportunities. The main themes are to monopolize on are dominant vs weak, team bias, and road favorite underrated. Let's dig in!

TNF

Cincinnati should blow out Jacksonville right? I just haven't seen the Cincinnati offense score much and with a 7.5 spread, I'm not hoping for Joe Burrow to put up yardage here. Low scoring game with a high spread would imply bet the underdog, but neither am I going with the Jax. Recency bias with last week's win against the Steelers. When I doubt both sides, I prefer to stay away and put these units elsewhere.

TAMPA BAY -7

Tom Brady back in Foxborough on Prime Time should be a hell of a game. It'll be quite the match up but I think the player will have more influence on the game than the coach. Tampa Bay being the much better team, by them being on the road, they are not getting the points they deserve...should be 10. My only worry is that everyone is betting the Bucs here so grab the 7 while you can because this will go to 7.5.

• NFL Pickles' models have this game anywhere between two and three TD margin
• Something is off with this line and everyone knows it. 92% of the tickets and money on the Bucs
• Tampa Bay ranked #8 DVOA at 24% while NE is 21st but -7.6% below the average
• Tampa's defense hasn't been the same yet and this could be the game where they turn it around
• QB Power Brady >>> Jones
• No significant injuries for the Bucs and Godwin, Gronk all expected to play. James White is out for the remainder of the season for the Patriots

This is a detection of a blowout with a single digit spread. Almost a home game for Brady and Gronk.

Atlanta +1.5

Give me the home dog here. Washington's defense prowess is lingering from last year yet this year they have been bad. They rank bottom 5 against the pass allowing 921 yards 6 TDs and 1 INT. Atlanta's defense isn't that great either and is close to Washington's in DVOA. In terms of offenses, they also look similar with a slight yet so slight edge on the Football team. So if these teams have performed so similar, why is the home team the underdog?

• Most of NFL Pickles' models have Atlanta by 3 which is exactly my point above
• Situationally a road favorite at 1.5 is 56% ATS in the last 50 games. Last week this was Seattle.
• Russell Gage is questionable which Atlanta could miss. Not likely a big factor.
• Matt Ryan >> Heinicke, I like to bet the veteran here
• Fade the house, Washington currently getting 60% of the bets and 80% of the money

An ugly take with the Falcons, but the Washington team is also garbage.

There's two more opportunities that I talk about on the full article on Rokfin.