Week 5 NFL Machine Learning Point Spread Picks

Last week, we stuck to our strategy of finding stronger teams beat much weaker teams with single-digit spreads and it paid off big time last week. Bills, Seahawks, Saints, Packers, KC, and Cincinnati all covered. The only disappointment being the Cardinals. This week there's a bit of that, but mostly the theme this week is recency bias. 

Recency bias is a plague and we have spotted it. Line makers and the public seem to only remember one week. You're smarter than that. 4 great opportunities spotted, let's roll.

Here are the games that my models have picked with significantly higher confidence:

Indianapolis -1.5

A home field and recency bias all in one. Cleveland is home therefore they get at least 3 points but probably more by line setters. 49 points last week for the Browns! WOW. Try that against the #1 defense according to DVOA. All my models have the Colts winning by at least 10 points. A better spread would probably be -3 so I'll jump on those points. I've hated on Rivers before and his 24th ranked offense is nothing to be impressed about. The Browns have won 3 in a row (vs Bengals, "W Team", and Cowboys), seems like a great spot to fade them.

For all other picks, go to Rokfin.com/NFLpickles and subscribe. It's probably the best investment you'll make after bitcoin :)