Week 4 NFL Machine Learning Point Spread Picks

The models have detected 5 opportunities. Double-digit predictions on single-digit point spreads. It's only week 4, I know we're just warming up. We're sprinkling some here and there, nothing serious yet. Still, these are some eye-opening numbers. Let's dig in.

New Orleans -4.5

I get it, the Saints defense isn't good. Surprisingly they're still ranked #12 in DVOA. Mostly because they can stop the run, but are having issues with passing. But you know what, Michael Thomas is back! Without him, they still were able to put 30 points on the board. This team scores 40 and Detroit won't be able to get anywhere near that. Detroit's D is the opposite. First, they aren't good either. They're better at stopping the pass which might be bad for Drew Brees. This might either mean they haven't faced a Thomas or that they will depend more on Kamara. This smells blowout, the Saints by two TDs.

Arizona -3.5

A big asterisk here for Hopkins. If he plays, then it's a play if not stay away. I like Arizona coming off a loss and the Panthers coming off a win. People including myself talk a lot about Murray and Hopkins and how dynamic they are. But the Cardinals defense has allowed 61 points in 3 games ranked 7th close to KC and PIT. They're defense DVOA is also ranked 7th and is 22% better against the run. Initial money is going to Carolina which is another reason to wait and see if you can get it at 3. I got Arizona also by more than 2 TDs against potentially the worst defense in the NFL.

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