Week 3 NFL Machine Learning Point Spread Picks

Last week's most confidence pick, the Rams, was such an easy win. A strong offense and pretty good defense against a weak Eagles team all around. Money.

We have two weeks of data under our database. DVOA metrics are out. The strength of schedule is a bit wild but we're starting to look at it. We use all of the tools at hand to continue to dump on mismatch ups with single-digit spreads being careful of a week heavy with injuries. 

LA Chargers -6.5

Carolina is not looking good and now MacCaffrey is out. Chargers according to DVOA are about 5% below average vs Carolina at -20%. They rank similar in offense and the defense is their differentiator. With MacCaffrey out, that offense DVOA should be a lot less. The models even by weighing recent games more heavily, all project the Chargers to win by over two TDs. Chargers are at home too, which is weird why this isn't even a TD for a spread. Milk the weak team. Carolina is 0-2 ATS and will be one of the teams that stays at 0-3 while the Chargers are 2-0 and the market doesn't seem to have caught up. Interesting that most of the money is on Carolina, that's good!

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