NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14
Pick 1: Arizona +3 
Pick 2: Green Bay -3
Pick 3: Buffalo -3
Another solid week for all of us! Could've gone perfect if it wasn't for that trash 75yd TD by Tampa when time was running out. Not too worry because I have run the numbers again this week and will be giving you some solid picks. First, give me the home dog Arizona expected to win the game outright. Fade the Browns after a cover, I don't care about Josh Brown he's going to get high before the game. When there's a new QB I usually put the game at the bottom, but McCoy will run all over the Colts. Finally, sell the Chargers high and get the dog although it missed the confidence by a point it will still be worth it.
Slightly increasing the bankroll to 25%, we continue to use Kelly's formula to maximize winnings and minimize the chance of bankrupt. With three solid NFL picks this week we get about $1200 per game. Let the good times roll!
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Green Bay -3
Pick 3: Buffalo -3
Another solid week for all of us! Could've gone perfect if it wasn't for that trash 75yd TD by Tampa when time was running out. Not too worry because I have run the numbers again this week and will be giving you some solid picks. First, give me the home dog Arizona expected to win the game outright. Fade the Browns after a cover, I don't care about Josh Brown he's going to get high before the game. When there's a new QB I usually put the game at the bottom, but McCoy will run all over the Colts. Finally, sell the Chargers high and get the dog although it missed the confidence by a point it will still be worth it.
Slightly increasing the bankroll to 25%, we continue to use Kelly's formula to maximize winnings and minimize the chance of bankrupt. With three solid NFL picks this week we get about $1200 per game. Let the good times roll!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENNESSEE @ ARIZONA | 3.0 | -4.90 | -7.92 | 61.52 |
| GREEN BAY @ CLEVELAND | 3.0 | 8.80 | 5.79 | 60.87 |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO | -3.0 | -8.60 | -5.57 | 59.29 |
| WASHINGTON @ LA CHARGERS | -6.0 | -3.50 | 2.50 | 57.62 |
| DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY | 1.0 | 0.80 | -0.24 | 56.33 |
| MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA | 3.0 | 6.00 | 3.00 | 55.46 |
| BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH | -6.5 | 1.00 | 7.50 | 55.71 |
| CHICAGO @ CINCINNATI | -6.5 | -3.20 | 3.27 | 51.22 |
| PHILADELPHIA @ LA RAMS | -2.0 | -4.40 | -2.42 | 50.58 |
| SEATTLE @ JACKSONVILLE | -3.0 | -2.40 | 0.60 | 50.00 |
| OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY | -4.0 | -6.00 | -2.00 | 50.00 |
| NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI | 11.5 | 15.50 | 3.96 | 49.86 |
| NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA | 2.0 | 5.80 | 3.84 | 47.50 |
| NY JETS @ DENVER | 1.5 | 6.20 | 4.71 | 47.50 |
| DALLAS @ NY GIANTS | 5.0 | -1.20 | -6.17 | NA |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ HOUSTON | -3.0 | -9.00 | -6.00 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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