2017 NFL Week 9 Point Spread Picks
Pick 1: New Orleans -7 
Pick 2: Miami +3 PUSH
Pick 3: Kansas City PK
Pick 4: Indianapolis +13
Coming out of a great week last week, I believe we have some great picks this week. Tampa Bay is terrible and the Saints should roll past them by a lot. Not so sure about Atlanta (*update: changed a few parameters, re-ran and now it's not a pick), but hopefully some of last year's glory comes out in this game against a struggling Panthers team. I hate betting for Cutler, but this is a nice fade against a bad Oakland team and always like getting a homedog in there. I like KC winning this game and with Ezequiel out it's almost a sure bet. Too many points in the Indi/Houston game.
This NFL week 9 we will start to put the foot on the pedal and increase to 18% of bankroll. Since we have 4 NFL football games preferred by machine learning each game will get a $440 bet.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Miami +3 PUSH
Pick 3: Kansas City PK
Pick 4: Indianapolis +13
Coming out of a great week last week, I believe we have some great picks this week. Tampa Bay is terrible and the Saints should roll past them by a lot. Not so sure about Atlanta (*update: changed a few parameters, re-ran and now it's not a pick), but hopefully some of last year's glory comes out in this game against a struggling Panthers team. I hate betting for Cutler, but this is a nice fade against a bad Oakland team and always like getting a homedog in there. I like KC winning this game and with Ezequiel out it's almost a sure bet. Too many points in the Indi/Houston game.
This NFL week 9 we will start to put the foot on the pedal and increase to 18% of bankroll. Since we have 4 NFL football games preferred by machine learning each game will get a $440 bet.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | -7.0 | -15.10 | -8.10 | 60.6 |
| OAKLAND @ MIAMI | 3.0 | -2.7 | -5.7 | 58.4 |
| KANSAS CITY @ DALLAS | 1.00 | 7.60 | 6.60 | 58.3 |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON | -13.0 | -10.50 | 2.50 | 58.0 |
| LA RAMS @ NY GIANTS | 3.5 | -11.00 | -14.50 | 57.1 |
| ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 2.0 | 3.60 | 1.6 | 54.3 |
| ATLANTA @ CAROLINA | -1.0 | 1.50 | 2.47 | 54.0 |
| CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE | -4.5 | 3.70 | 8.17 | 53.7 |
| BUFFALO @ NY JETS | 3.0 | 5.70 | 2.67 | 53.4 |
| WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE | -7.5 | -2.70 | 4.83 | 51.2 |
| DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA | -8.0 | -9.70 | -1.70 | 50.0 |
| BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE | -4.5 | -1.70 | 2.83 | NA |
| DETROIT @ GREEN BAY | 2.5 | -9.70 | -12.17 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php
Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
AND YET this week you have the following prediction
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -7.0 -5.10 1.86 60.6
You pick the Saints and your PRED-VEGAS is positive 1.86
Please explain