2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16
Pick 1: Seattle -8 
Pick 2: Atlanta -2.5
Pick 3: Dallas -7
Pick 4: San Diego -6.5
Pick 5: Kansas City -4
We continue to either win big or go home by continuing the 30% of bankroll. This puts us at $400 a game for the 5 games we have going on this week.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Atlanta -2.5
Pick 3: Dallas -7
Pick 4: San Diego -6.5
Pick 5: Kansas City -4
We continue to either win big or go home by continuing the 30% of bankroll. This puts us at $400 a game for the 5 games we have going on this week.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZONA @ SEATTLE | -8 | -15.6 | -7.6 | 72.4% |
| ATLANTA @ CAROLINA | 2.5 | 13.9 | 11.4 | 62.5% |
| DETROIT @ DALLAS | -7 | -9.1 | -2.1 | 58.7% |
| SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND | 6.5 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 57.3% |
| DENVER @ KANSAS CITY | -4 | -10.8 | -6.8 | 57.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ HOUSTON | -2 | -8.3 | -6.3 | 55.1% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND | -4 | -10.1 | -6.1 | 53.5% |
| NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND | -16.5 | -12.9 | 3.6 | 52.6% |
| NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA | 2.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | 52.0% |
| MIAMI @ BUFFALO | -3.5 | -7.6 | -4.1 | 51.4% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ LOS ANGELES | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.5 | 50.4% |
| WASHINGTON @ CHICAGO | 3 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 50.0% |
| TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE | 5 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 50.0% |
| TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | -3 | -17.3 | -14.3 | 50.0% |
| MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY | -7 | -15.9 | -8.9 | 49.4% |
| BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH | -4.5 | -3.0 | 1.5 | 48.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Fiftytwopointfour likes the following this week:
Bears (+3)
Cowboys (-7)
Bills/Dolphins (Over 41 1/2)
Cowboys/Lions (Over 44 1/2)
P.S. As of a few weeks ago, your comments system became more complicated/strict. That's why I haven't been bothering to deal with it up to this week. It would be great if you could figure out how to loosen it back up so commenting is quick and easy again!
The way his model works is that each game goes into a bucket based on the Vegas line and his line. The historic performance of that bucket determines the confidence of that pick.