2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Super Bowl 50
Pick: Denver +6 
I don't have any intuitively sane way to talk about this pick. Without looking at any predictions or statistical model results, I don't see how Carolina is not going to roll past the Broncos. A simple qualitative analysis would say: both defenses are not that different, the offenses are extremely different, therefore Carolina wins by a lot. Yet the spread is at 6 and it doesn't seem to move much more. But the numbers are the numbers and betting emotional picks have bit me in the ass way many times before. So close your eyes, bet Denver and prey that Peyton Manning does one final push to prove he's a hall of famer. Oh and wait til Sunday, the spread is not going lower, if anything it might creep up to a touchdown.
The bet will be 30% of bankroll which is about $1,500 for the game. Good luck!
How to read the table:
I don't have any intuitively sane way to talk about this pick. Without looking at any predictions or statistical model results, I don't see how Carolina is not going to roll past the Broncos. A simple qualitative analysis would say: both defenses are not that different, the offenses are extremely different, therefore Carolina wins by a lot. Yet the spread is at 6 and it doesn't seem to move much more. But the numbers are the numbers and betting emotional picks have bit me in the ass way many times before. So close your eyes, bet Denver and prey that Peyton Manning does one final push to prove he's a hall of famer. Oh and wait til Sunday, the spread is not going lower, if anything it might creep up to a touchdown.
The bet will be 30% of bankroll which is about $1,500 for the game. Good luck!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENVER - CAROLINA | -6 | -4.1 | 1.9 | 55.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Prediction: Panthers 24, Broncos 19
(Broncos +6 and the Under 45)
Recommendation is Carolina and Under
While the line may go above +6 in the last hours before the game when everything goes crazy I don't think it's going to be the case that most casual bettors will be able to get better than that. The money line has been heavily trending towards Denver since last weekend and the spread has been going that way too.
Proost!
Our final totals for the year's picks are:
48-26 (64.9%)
Above our average so we're very happy.
Proost!
Thank you all for your comments, you really made this a much better place to visit (given the picks weren't that great during the season). Thanks again.
Jaime
RealLine & others, congrats on the strong season!
As for us, fiftytwopointfour finished the postseason on an up note (winning 5 of the last 6 picks) to bring our season+postseason totals to a 52.5% win rate for picks against the spread and a surprising 56.7% win rate in our first season picking against the totals for every game this year.
Enjoy the offseason, gentlemen, hope it goes fast.
You can read things here: https://blog.therealline.com/