2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 16
Pick 1: San Francisco +10 
Pick 2: Carolina -7
Pick 3: Kansas City -10.5
Pick 4: Arizona -4.5
Pick 5: Cincinnati +3.5
Finally! But looks like everyone cashed in last week. Apparently casinos took a bad hit on week 15, making all of us winners. So at least, I got some easy action. On to this week... SF under-valued, Carolina to continue its streak, KC to blow Cleveland away, Arizona at home and Denver to continue struggling.
We will continue betting close to 27% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Carolina -7
Pick 3: Kansas City -10.5
Pick 4: Arizona -4.5
Pick 5: Cincinnati +3.5
Finally! But looks like everyone cashed in last week. Apparently casinos took a bad hit on week 15, making all of us winners. So at least, I got some easy action. On to this week... SF under-valued, Carolina to continue its streak, KC to blow Cleveland away, Arizona at home and Denver to continue struggling.
We will continue betting close to 27% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN FRANCISCO @ DETROIT | -10 | -6.4 | 3.6 | 59.1% |
| CAROLINA @ ATLANTA | 7 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 59.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | -10.5 | -15.5 | -5.0 | 58.9% |
| GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA | -4.5 | -6.7 | -2.2 | 57.7% |
| CINCINNATI @ DENVER | -3.5 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 57.1% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS | 3 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 53.5% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ORLEANS | -3.5 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 52.7% |
| ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE | -13.5 | -6.3 | 7.2 | 52.2% |
| DALLAS @ BUFFALO | -6 | -6.4 | -0.4 | 50.0% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ MIAMI | -2.5 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 50.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE | 10 | 6.0 | -4.0 | 50.0% |
| CHICAGO @ TAMPA BAY | -3 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 44.3% |
| WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA | -3 | -1.1 | 1.9 | 44.3% |
| NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA | -5.5 | -8.9 | -3.4 | 40.0% |
| SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND | -6 | -1.4 | 4.6 | 38.5% |
| HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE | -4.5 | 10.0 | 14.5 | 35.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
For the NFL:
Cleveland +12.5
St. Louis +13.5
WAS (+3.0)
JAC (+3.0)
CLE (+11.0)
NYG (+6.0)
ATL (+7.0)
ARI (-4.5)
BAL (+10.0)
CAR@ATL (under 47.5)
Jaime we're on CLE because the number is too high. We put the line at +7.5.
Proost!
> CHIEFS (-12)
> SEAHAWKS (-13.5)
> Ravens (+10)
> Jaguars (+3.5)
2016: 52% ATS, 56.9% Over/Under
CHI +3.5
CAR -6.5
KAN -11
HOU -4
Good luck to all!!!
Last week was 80% against the spread going 3-2 ATS and 5-0 on the Over/Under.
These guys are really good
Good luck to all!