2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12
Pick 1: Minnesota +1.5 
Pick 2: NY Giants -3
Pick 3: Buffalo +6
Pick 4: Arizona -10
Pick 5: Carolina +1
As the struggles continues, this week we get 5 visiting teams with above threshold confidence. There are a few that worries me but if I take them out I put emotion into them. Probably Carolina should be removed given Romo but underdogs? I like that, plus I want a Turkey pick. All the others I could probably talk either way about how they 'look good' but until this turns around I'll just avoid the chat.
This week we'll bet 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game. Good luck everyone and happy Thanksgiving!
How to read the table:
Pick 2: NY Giants -3
Pick 3: Buffalo +6
Pick 4: Arizona -10
Pick 5: Carolina +1
As the struggles continues, this week we get 5 visiting teams with above threshold confidence. There are a few that worries me but if I take them out I put emotion into them. Probably Carolina should be removed given Romo but underdogs? I like that, plus I want a Turkey pick. All the others I could probably talk either way about how they 'look good' but until this turns around I'll just avoid the chat.
This week we'll bet 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 5 picks to give us a bet of $300 per game. Good luck everyone and happy Thanksgiving!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA | -1.5 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 61.4% |
| NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON | 3 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 60.6% |
| BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY | -6 | 2.1 | 8.1 | 58.3% |
| ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10 | 18.8 | 8.8 | 57.0% |
| CAROLINA @ DALLAS | 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 56.2% |
| PITTSBURGH @ SEATTLE | -3.5 | -2.6 | 0.9 | 55.4% |
| MIAMI @ NY JETS | -3.5 | -14.0 | -10.5 | 54.4% |
| CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY | -9 | -11.5 | -2.5 | 54.0% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ HOUSTON | -3 | -4.3 | -1.3 | 52.7% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT | -1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 50.0% |
| ST LOUIS @ CINCINNATI | -9 | -5.0 | 4.0 | 50.0% |
| OAKLAND @ TENNESSEE | 2 | -1.9 | -3.9 | 50.0% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER | 3 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 50.0% |
| SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE | -4 | -2.7 | 1.3 | 49.4% |
| TAMPA BAY @ INDIANAPOLIS | -3 | -1.7 | 1.3 | 49.4% |
| BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND | -3 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 48.7% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Here are my numbers on your picks this week:
MIN (+3.4)
NYG (-2.0)
BUF (+8.7)
ARI (-7.7)
CAR (-6.2)
Carolina is the lone standout.
> Panthers (+1.5)
> Bengals (-9)
> Cardinals (-10)
We overlap on 2 out of our 3 top picks, Jaime, so GO Panthers and Cardinals!
TB (+3.0)
NYJ (-3.5)
JAC (-4.5)
KC (-5.5)
Proost!
HOU -3
MIN +2.5
CIN -9
IND -3
SDC +5