2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5
Pick 1: Buffalo -2.5 
Pick 2: Denver -5
Pick 3: Indianapolis +2
Pick 4: Cincinnati -3 PUSH
Another ugly week. We used to wait until week 5 to put official picks but I changed that last year. Probably a bad idea, but at least now hopeful the algorithm will catch up and start winning again. This week we're betting for 3 visiting team and a home team. Indianapolis will find a way to win that game, Denver's defense should help cover and Buffalo will come out swinging. Lynch is out and Cincinnati is killing it.
This week we raise the pool to 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 5 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Denver -5
Pick 3: Indianapolis +2
Pick 4: Cincinnati -3 PUSH
Another ugly week. We used to wait until week 5 to put official picks but I changed that last year. Probably a bad idea, but at least now hopeful the algorithm will catch up and start winning again. This week we're betting for 3 visiting team and a home team. Indianapolis will find a way to win that game, Denver's defense should help cover and Buffalo will come out swinging. Lynch is out and Cincinnati is killing it.
This week we raise the pool to 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 5 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE | 2.5 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 62.7% |
| DENVER @ OAKLAND | 5 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 58.7% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON | -2 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 59.0% |
| SEATTLE @ CINCINNATI | -3 | -6.2 | -3.2 | 57.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ TAMPA BAY | -3 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 56.0% |
| ARIZONA @ DETROIT | 3 | -0.4 | -3.4 | 54.9% |
| ST LOUIS @ GREEN BAY | -9.5 | -16.2 | -6.7 | 51.4% |
| CHICAGO @ KANSAS CITY | -9 | -7.3 | 1.7 | 51.2% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS | -7 | -5.3 | 1.7 | 51.0% |
| WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | -7.5 | -4.8 | 2.7 | 50.0% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ DALLAS | 9.5 | 5.3 | -4.2 | 50.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE | -6.5 | -12.9 | -6.4 | 50.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ SAN DIEGO | -3.5 | -0.8 | 2.7 | 49.8% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA | -5 | -7.4 | -2.4 | 48.9% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
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Strongest Plays Of The Week:
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Washington +7.5
New Orleans +4.5
TENNESSEE +2.5
Strong Opinions:
Chicago +9.5
Seattle +3
Best of luck to everyone.
Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
BUF (-3.0)
DEN (-3.9)
IND (+5.7)
CIN (-1.6)
so not really in agreement on any of the picks this week outside of BUF being close. Best of luck all.
This week, the top three picks are:
- GIANTS -7
- BENGALS -3
- actually, there are only two picks with decent confidence this week
Good luck!
Good luck!
ATL (-7.0)
BAL (-6.5)
DET (+3.0)
NYG (-7.0)
The one dog pick is definitely a dicey one as well as the Lions have yet to show that they remember how to play football.
Proost!