2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 4
Pick 1: Arizona -7 
Pick 2: Carolina -3.5
Pick 3: Denver -7
What an ugly week last one. This week we have more data for the teams this year and I also shifted more weight to 2015s games. bad picks against Arizona and the Packers. These two teams and New England should probably not be faded until the spread adjusts accordingly. This week we go with two 7 point home favorites and a visiting favorites. Chicago as a home dog almost made it, but even though they're playing Oakland I can't bet for my own Bears.
Arizona and Denver should cover at home. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. week 4 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Carolina -3.5
Pick 3: Denver -7
What an ugly week last one. This week we have more data for the teams this year and I also shifted more weight to 2015s games. bad picks against Arizona and the Packers. These two teams and New England should probably not be faded until the spread adjusts accordingly. This week we go with two 7 point home favorites and a visiting favorites. Chicago as a home dog almost made it, but even though they're playing Oakland I can't bet for my own Bears.
Arizona and Denver should cover at home. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. week 4 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA | -7 | -10.3 | -3.3 | 62.8% |
| CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY | 3.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 58.9% |
| MINNESOTA @ DENVER | -7 | -12.2 | -5.2 | 57.0% |
| OAKLAND @ CHICAGO | 3 | 0.2 | -2.8 | 56.3% |
| MIAMI - NY JETS | -2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 54.0% |
| KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI | -4 | 1.9 | 5.9 | 54.0% |
| DETROIT @ SEATTLE | -10 | -8.9 | 1.1 | 52.7% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 3.5 | 6,5 | 3.0 | 51.9% |
| HOUSTON @ ATLANTA | -7 | -3 | 4 | 51.1% |
| GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO | 9.5 | 6.5 | -3.0 | 50.4% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS | -9 | -12.5 | -3.5 | 50.5% |
| NY GIANTS @ BUFFALO | -5.5 | -10.7 | -5.2 | 50.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ SAN DIEGO | -7.5 | -9.0 | -1.5 | 49.2% |
| DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS | -4 | 4.5 | 8.5 | NA |
| BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH | 3 | 6.0 | 3.0 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
ARI (-5.5)
CAR (-4.9)
DEN (-5.3)
On the same side on the CAR pick, not as much on the other two.
My model's top 3 picks went 3-0 for the second week in a row (cool), yet the rest of the games went 4-9 (ew). And my undefeated streak will end this week, as I had the Steelers last night.
Fiftytwopointfour's top 3 picks this week.
- Steelers +2.5 <-- I stand by this pick even though it lost by half a point!
- Raiders -3
- Bengals -4
Good luck!
Having said that, I think they'll figure out how to score and their defense should hold Oakland. We'll see, I'm staying away from that game. Good luck.
This is the week of the big road dog. My numbers like STL as the "best" pick but if ARI isn't the scariest team to bet against right now I don't know who is.
HOU (+6.0)
JAC (+7.5)
CLE (+7.0)
STL (+7.0)
These are the kind of picks that can make you look silly but you still need to make them. JAC@IND line should be interesting in the morning depending on what happens with Luck starting.
No pick on the Monday night game as the Vegas line looks spot on so a 3-1 week for us and looking ahead to week 5.