2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 3
Pick 1: Kansas City +7 
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5
Pick 3: Denver -3.5
Pick 4: Indianapolis -3.5
It somewhat makes me uncomfortable to see 4 visiting teams as pick but if that's the way the algorithm works then let be it. I also don't feel comfortable betting against the Packers but Kansas City is also a good bet. Indianapolis has had a rough start and it's probably under valued because of that. Detroit doesn't look good and although Manning had points in the game that looked like his last days, he was able to make a heck of a comeback. Plus the Denver defense (which I just picked up in my fantasy league) can turn the game our way.
It is cool at least that two of the games are night games. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $375 per game. Below is week 3 NFL point spread predictions.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5
Pick 3: Denver -3.5
Pick 4: Indianapolis -3.5
It somewhat makes me uncomfortable to see 4 visiting teams as pick but if that's the way the algorithm works then let be it. I also don't feel comfortable betting against the Packers but Kansas City is also a good bet. Indianapolis has had a rough start and it's probably under valued because of that. Detroit doesn't look good and although Manning had points in the game that looked like his last days, he was able to make a heck of a comeback. Plus the Denver defense (which I just picked up in my fantasy league) can turn the game our way.
It is cool at least that two of the games are night games. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $375 per game. Below is week 3 NFL point spread predictions.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KANSAS CITY @ GREEN BAY | -7 | -0.9 | 6.1 | 68.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | -6.5 | -2.2 | 4.3 | 66.7% |
| DENVER @ DETROIT | 3.5 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 58.6% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE | 3.5 | 20.0 | 16.5 | 57.7% |
| CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE | -2.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 55.6% |
| CHICAGO @ SEATTLE | -15 | -17.9 | -2.9 | 54.2% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND | -14 | -21.2 | -7.2 | 53.5% |
| BUFFALO @ MIAMI | -3 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 52.7% |
| TAMPA BAY @ HOUSTON | -6.5 | -8.3 | -1.8 | 51.8% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA | -6.5 | 3.3 | 9.8 | 51.6% |
| WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS | -3.5 | -0.3 | 3.2 | 50.7% |
| OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND | -3.5 | -2.7 | 0.8 | 50.5% |
| SAN DIEGO @ MINNESOTA | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 50.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ ST LOUIS | 2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 50.0% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ NY JETS | -3 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 49.2% |
| ATLANTA @ DALLAS | 2 | -12.7 | -14.7 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
KC (+8.9)
SF (+6.1)
DEN (-0.9)
IND (+3.3)
The IND number is especially different with my model having TEN as almost a 3.5 fave instead of a 3.5 point dog. In this case I think the threat of going 0-3 guarantees that IND shows up strong so it would be a hard bet to make.
Excited that my model's top 3 picks went 3-0 last week, and all picks aginst the point spread went 11-5. (And all over/under picks went 13-3!) That win rate cannot last, but it's fun to bask for a week!
Fiftytwopointfour's top 3 picks this week:
- Titans +3.5
- Panthers -3.0
- Cardinals -6.5
Picks for all games at http://fiftytwopointfour.wordpress.com
NYG (-3.5)
Proost!
Sides:
MIN (-1.0)
CLE (-3.5)
TEN (+3.0)
Totals:
PIT-STL (over 48.0)
DEN-DET (under 44.5)
The TEN pick is very tough to make going against IND given their 0-2 start. It's very likely that line will move to +3.5 before the morning so I would hold out for that.
Proost!