2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 1
Pick 1: Seattle -4.5 
Pick 2: Arizona -3
Pick 3: Green Bay -7
Lets get to it right away. Comment your opinions and top picks. This year picks are FREE during the regular season. Come back and check results. This is my 8th year doing this, all results are accessible by year and week. If you know something I may not, comment, it's for the best of this community. I've always believed that there is a bias by bettors that don't use statistical algorithms to make betting decisions. Transparency and analytical is how I roll. Lets win some money together.
This week start betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Arizona -3
Pick 3: Green Bay -7
Lets get to it right away. Comment your opinions and top picks. This year picks are FREE during the regular season. Come back and check results. This is my 8th year doing this, all results are accessible by year and week. If you know something I may not, comment, it's for the best of this community. I've always believed that there is a bias by bettors that don't use statistical algorithms to make betting decisions. Transparency and analytical is how I roll. Lets win some money together.
This week start betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS | 4.5 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 65.5% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA | -3 | -8.4 | -5.4 | 59.4% |
| GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO | 7 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 58.3% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA | 3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 55.6% |
| CAROLINA @ JACKSONVILLE | 3.5 | -1.2 | -4.7 | 54.9% |
| MIAMI @ WASHINGTON | 4 | -0.7 | -4.7 | 54.9% |
| TENNESSEE @ TAMPA BAY | -3 | -4.1 | -1.1 | 53.0% |
| DETROIT @ SAN DIEGO | -3 | -5.3 | -2.3 | 53.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND | 3.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 52.6% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO | 3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 52.6% |
| KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON | -1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 52.6% |
| NY GIANTS @ DALLAS | -6 | -11.1 | -5.1 | 50.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ NY JETS | -3 | -2.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND | -7 | -22.9 | -15.9 | 49.3% |
| MINNESOTA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 2.5 | -5.0 | -7.5 | 48.1% |
| BALTIMORE @ DENVER | -5 | -8.9 | -3.9 | 47.6% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
SEA -4.15
NO -0.41
GB -11.99
So the only pick I agree on is the GB -7.
This early in the season the numbers rely too much on last season for me so I just use them as leans and not as picks. Real picks start up 2nd or 3rd week for me.
Green Bay -7
Miami -3.5
Cleveland +3.5
Cincinnati -3
Philadelphia -3
It surprised me that your model has Washington winning straight up. I also had Carolina, KC, and, Seattle, but I think Carolina will struggle to score points, Seattle has offensive line issues and KC vs Houston could go either way. Anywho Good Luck this season
Gretl and R are a couple of great programs for doing logarithmic and linear regressions. Even if you don't have a background in statistics regressions are easy to understand and do after just a bit of reading.
FANN is another great tool, although mostly needs some programming help, for digging into neural networks. It's a bit more hardcore but it's something to keep on your path :)
At the end of the day I also still believe in bringing some standard handicapping approaches to picks as well. Numbers provide me a starting point to find weaknesses and then I use some old school checks to find traps, etc.
My lines for the games you're looking at:
MIA (-3.6)
CLE (+4.1)
CIN (-4.1)
PHI (+2.3)
I don't trust my PHI #'s at this point considering it's practically a whole new team. This is why I don't make real picks for the first couple of weeks until the numbers for this season start to take over.
https://twitter.com/RealLineNFL
We don't sell picks or run a tout service so we just make our picks public for fun. I'm looking forward to following the conversations here this season.
Proost!
GB (-7.0)
HOU (PK)
DAL(-6.0)
ATL(+3.0)
SF(+2.5)
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