2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 13
Pick 1: Denver -2 
Pick 2: Seattle +1
Pick 3: San Diego -4.5
Pick 4: Dallas -3
Pick 5: New England +3
I have no regrets regarding the picks last week. They were solid picks, no emotions, pure data and the right ones given the situation. New England of course was the right pick and also a blowout. Denver should have pull that one off and so should KC. I still think weather wasn't the tipping big factor. Like some of the comments in the post last week, I can't expect to win every week although it would be nice. Models can't and won't account for everything, but one tries to determine the key variables that do drive the predictions and in the long run it should work and pay off. We're now going to week 13 which means that there are still 4 weeks in the regular season and then the playoffs. Plenty of time to come out with huge gains!
This week we have 5 premium picks. I have to get them out on Monday as I will be traveling without my data-crunching computer. Usually too many picks for my taste but it is what it is. I have lost betting Denver the last two weeks and KC is a homedog. SF at home by 1. The SD/BAL makes me a little nervous given that I don't know where the line is, but if I can't remove it. Finally, NE is going to Lambeau. There is one free computer-based predictions that doesn't look too bad and that's Carolina. We have two Thanksgiving night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we raise the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 5 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $400 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Seattle +1
Pick 3: San Diego -4.5
Pick 4: Dallas -3
Pick 5: New England +3
I have no regrets regarding the picks last week. They were solid picks, no emotions, pure data and the right ones given the situation. New England of course was the right pick and also a blowout. Denver should have pull that one off and so should KC. I still think weather wasn't the tipping big factor. Like some of the comments in the post last week, I can't expect to win every week although it would be nice. Models can't and won't account for everything, but one tries to determine the key variables that do drive the predictions and in the long run it should work and pay off. We're now going to week 13 which means that there are still 4 weeks in the regular season and then the playoffs. Plenty of time to come out with huge gains!
This week we have 5 premium picks. I have to get them out on Monday as I will be traveling without my data-crunching computer. Usually too many picks for my taste but it is what it is. I have lost betting Denver the last two weeks and KC is a homedog. SF at home by 1. The SD/BAL makes me a little nervous given that I don't know where the line is, but if I can't remove it. Finally, NE is going to Lambeau. There is one free computer-based predictions that doesn't look too bad and that's Carolina. We have two Thanksgiving night game and two day games on Sunday. Some notable mentions in the free picks include Arizona and Cleveland. This week we raise the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 5 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $400 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENVER @ KANSAS CITY | 2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 62.5% |
| SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | -1 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 61.0% |
| SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE | -4.5 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 59.3% |
| PHILADEPHIA @ DALLAS | -3 | -7.0 | -4.0 | 58.3% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ GREEN BAY | -3 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 58.1% |
| CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA | -2.5 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 56.5% |
| NY GIANTS @ JACKSONVILLE | 3 | 0.4 | -2.6 | 55.8% |
| OAKLAND @ ST LOUIS | -7 | -7.7 | -0.7 | 54.8% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ PITTSBURGH | -3 | -4.8 | -1.8 | 52.1% |
| CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO | -1.5 | -7.0 | -5.5 | 50.0% |
| ARIZONA @ ATLANTA | 2.5 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 50.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ TAMPA BAY | 4 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 49.9% |
| WASHINGTON @ INDIANAPOLIS | -10 | -10.1 | -0.1 | 48.4% |
| CHICAGO @ DETROIT | -7 | -4.1 | 2.9 | 48.2% |
| TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON | -6 | -9.9 | -3.9 | 47.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
@KC : -4.7
@SF : -1.5
@BAL : -4.9
@DAL : -3.6
@GB : -3.3
I'm pretty much in agreement with the Vegas line in all of them except DEN@KC but I'm against DEN pretty much every week given how inflated their numbers can be. Across the board the early Vegas numbers are looking pretty good this week. We'll see if they provide some more edges later in the week.
Best of luck all.
Value PICK
0.2 PHI
0.5 SEA
0.8 CHI
1.2 OAK
1.7 NO
4.2 TB
2.5 MIN
3.2 WAS
3.6 HOU
1.1 CLE
2.2 JAX
1.7 SD
0.7 ATL
3.8 GB
5.6 KC
2.3 NYJ
Best of luck to all.
Wonder why we are all on the same games (not necessarily on the same side)?
Sign a Bears fan
Happy Thanksgiving All!
The only mistakes were:
Pick Value
TB 3.0
NE .49
Sorry for the confusion.
BUF-2.5 7-0
BAL-5.5 6-0
HOU-6.5 5-0
NYG-2.5 4-0
ATL+2.5 5-1
NO+4.5 3-0
GB-3 2-0
I think I saw on the site somewhere earlier this week that the top 5 selections of all competitors were 36-25 through Week 12. Here are those selections as well:
ARI-2.5
NYG-2.5
BAL-5.5
BUF-2.5
CIN-3.5
NE-3
Another consideration would be betting against the least popular picks, this would suggest playing:
HOU-6.5
MIA-6.5
MIN-2.5
STL-6.5
BUF-2.5
NYG-2.5
Lastly, I'll consider the net number of selections for each game, and say:
NYG-2.5
BUF-2.5
BAL-5.5
MIA-6.5
CIN-3.5
ARI-2.5
Does anyone have thoughts on why the top players are selecting ATL, but everyone else has ARI? I.e. what is the ATL angle in this game?
My model is very pass efficiency focused and is front loaded so recent results are valued more. The Cards aren't the same 9-2 team without Palmer.
Each of the teams listed where the "consensus" pick of the Top 9, followed by the line used in the contest. Then I listed the number who selected the team, vs how many selected the opponent.
For the Atlanta game, 6 of the top 9 played the game, 5 went ATL+2.5, 1 went ARI-2.5.
Best.
The top 9 went a combined 29-16 this week.
Like I said, I have followed this Hilton contest for years, and the BEST system out there is to take the top10 each week and look for COMMON plays.
BUT... You need to wait 6 weeks or so. From my experience, the guys after week 6 tend to STAY at the top and you can ride these guys to profitability.
I have done my homework.
I really have no suggestions on how to change the blog. I don't care about how pretty stuff is though, I just like it to function. This functions well enough for me.
I know in the past, you used to be able to view the overall Yahoo leaders picks an hour before kickoff. Is this still possible? If no one knows, I'll check on Sunday.
BUF-2.5 7-0 win
BAL-5.5 6-0 lose
HOU-6.5 5-0 win
NYG-2.5 4-0 lose