2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 10
Pick 1: Denver -12 
Pick 2: Philadelphia -6
Pick 3: Arizona -7
That was a great bounce back with a 3-1 ATS. The one loss was way off with Miami destroying the sinking Chargers, but at least in only counts as one loss. Indianapolis also bounced back with strength as they dominated the Giants on the road. Staying on course with the data and not being influenced by emotions and recent games is important to any bettor. This week we also have 3 solid NFL picks. The models are unanimously picking these teams and picks. As always, below is the list of free NFL point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.
This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. You can see that so far we've had better success in the front half of the season where bankroll was around 12%-15% and now it's been consistently at 18%. This explains why we have hardly any ROI but the ATS is at 54.8%. See below for a list for free NFL point spread predictions. The 4 premium picks have already been sent to all premium members.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Philadelphia -6
Pick 3: Arizona -7
That was a great bounce back with a 3-1 ATS. The one loss was way off with Miami destroying the sinking Chargers, but at least in only counts as one loss. Indianapolis also bounced back with strength as they dominated the Giants on the road. Staying on course with the data and not being influenced by emotions and recent games is important to any bettor. This week we also have 3 solid NFL picks. The models are unanimously picking these teams and picks. As always, below is the list of free NFL point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.
This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. You can see that so far we've had better success in the front half of the season where bankroll was around 12%-15% and now it's been consistently at 18%. This explains why we have hardly any ROI but the ATS is at 54.8%. See below for a list for free NFL point spread predictions. The 4 premium picks have already been sent to all premium members.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENVER @ OAKLAND | 12 | 20.2 | 8.2 | 60.6% |
| CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA | -6 | -11.8 | -5.8 | 58.4% |
| ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA | -7 | -12.5 | -5.5 | 58.4% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW ORLEANS | -5 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 55.5% |
| PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS | 6 | 3.7 | -2.3 | 55.3% |
| CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY | -7.5 | -2.3 | 5.2 | 55.0% |
| TENNESSEE @ BALTIMORE | -10 | -13.0 | -3.0 | 53.8% |
| KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO | 2.5 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 52.8% |
| NY GIANTS @ SEATTLE | -9.5 | -15.9 | -6.4 | 50.0% |
| MIAMI @ DETROIT | -3 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 50.0% |
| DALLAS - JACKSONVILLE | 6.5 | 4.8 | -1.7 | 49.7% |
| CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | -6.5 | -10.9 | -4.4 | 49.5% |
| ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY | 1.5 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 48.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Value Plays On:
Philly our line is 12.2 (With Foles)
Arizona our line is 12
Denver our line is 10.5 so no play.
The squares will be all over Denver, the sharps will be waiting for the line to move a bit higher then come in late on Oakland.
Jaime, I hope you don't mind if I post my email on here, but I wouldn't mind discussing models further with TotalBS. Shoot me an email at jgrant1094@gmail.com. Maybe we can find improvements to our models using our combined knowledge.
For Sunday, Tampa Bay +1.5 has a lot of value.
Good luck to all!
My model in the games you/Jaime consider value:
Philly by 15 (with Foles)
Arizona by 12.5
Denver by 12
Atlanta by 1.5
My value plays would be:
Miami over Detroit
New Orleans over San Francisco
Arizona over St. Louis
Philly would have been, but I wouldn't play it due to the injury.
Good luck
My model has the following lines on the top 3 games:
@OAK +8.1
@PHI -10
@ARI -9.3
Best of luck all.
I use the NFLgame python library that parses the Gamecenter play by play feed for NFL stats but right now I don't have any other sources for other sports. I'd love to get something similar for NCAA football.
What numbers do you use that made your Denver line so high? I have a couple of different models and none of them had Denver over the Vegas line let alone by 8 points.
Do you use situational things like ATS or just straight up boxscore numbers?