2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 7
Pick 1: Seattle -7 
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5
Pick 3: Miami +4 
Pick 4: Buffalo -5.5
After spending plenty of time doing research and enjoying the games (did you witness the Denver Vegas moment?!), my wife asked that I sell the picks. She understands the value that a VP in Analytics can provide to sports investors so she's encouraging me to do so (or else). I have posted 5 Reasons Why You Want to Buy NFLpickles' Picks on the subscription page. They include my 100% guarantee, my record, experience, transparency, focus on NFL point spreads and affordable prices.
For only $199 you get all the picks until the end of the season + playoffs. These type of picks go for about $500 in other places. These places try to sell you picks in every sport you can imagine by sports fanatics and not experienced data scientists.
Get ALL 2014 NFLpickles' Point Spread Picks
100% Guarantee - If all picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back
Many of you have followed me since I started in 2007 and know my record: 4 winning seasons in the past 6 years, and one break even. All my stats by year are on the side bar and you can access every pick I've made since 2007, that's transparency. Do notice that I've kept the majority of the picks free, but premium picks are only provided to members.
We raise the bankroll this week to use 18% of bankroll split evenly across 4 games giving us a bet of $490 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 7:
How to read the table:
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5
Pick 3: Miami +4
Pick 4: Buffalo -5.5
After spending plenty of time doing research and enjoying the games (did you witness the Denver Vegas moment?!), my wife asked that I sell the picks. She understands the value that a VP in Analytics can provide to sports investors so she's encouraging me to do so (or else). I have posted 5 Reasons Why You Want to Buy NFLpickles' Picks on the subscription page. They include my 100% guarantee, my record, experience, transparency, focus on NFL point spreads and affordable prices.
For only $199 you get all the picks until the end of the season + playoffs. These type of picks go for about $500 in other places. These places try to sell you picks in every sport you can imagine by sports fanatics and not experienced data scientists.
Many of you have followed me since I started in 2007 and know my record: 4 winning seasons in the past 6 years, and one break even. All my stats by year are on the side bar and you can access every pick I've made since 2007, that's transparency. Do notice that I've kept the majority of the picks free, but premium picks are only provided to members.
We raise the bankroll this week to use 18% of bankroll split evenly across 4 games giving us a bet of $490 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 7:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS | 7 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 61.5% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ DENVER | -6.5 | -2.7 | 3.8 | 58.2% |
| MIAMI @ CHICAGO | -4 | -1.5 | 2.5 | 58.1% |
| MINNESOTA @ BUFFALO | -5.5 | -9.8 | -4.3 | 58.0% |
| ARIZONA @ OAKLAND | 4 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 56.7% |
| KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO | -4 | -3.0 | 1.0 | 55.5% |
| CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE | 6 | 8 | 2/0 | 55.3% |
| NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND * | -10 | -14.3 | -4.3 | 54.3% |
| TENNESSEE @ WASHINGTON | -6 | -7.2 | -1.2 | 53.3% |
| HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH * | -3.5 | -3.7 | -0.2 | 50.0% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT | -3 | -3.3 | -0.3 | 50.0% |
| CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY | -7 | -5.0 | 2.0 | 50.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS | -3.5 | -1.5 | 2.0 | 48.3% |
| NY GIANTS @ DALLAS | -6.5 | -10.2 | -3.7 | 47.8% |
| ATLANTA @ BALTIMORE | -7 | -11.0 | -4.0 | 47.8% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
For those betting, you need to be at certain levels for this to be valuable. My suggestion is that if you're not doing at least $50 a game, this might not be worth it.
Otherwise, getting access to these picks will help you in decision making. There's a lot of value here if compared to other services out there. Good luck everyone!
I would be willing to contribute to a kickstarter fund or something like that to offset the time you put into your data, but I simply do not wager enough to justify $199.
Best of luck, I hope you still have plenty of readers who do purchase your picks...
Check out nflocksmith.com for free nfl picks and Fanduel lineup suggestions!
It takes a while to "run the data". It is scalable, but requires injury search, expertise and research as well as heavily depending on outlier detection and advanced analytics.
I was a little suspicious of your site when you took credit for a win in week 5 when you where the only one who had CLE as a favorite over TEN. (That skewed your winning pct)
The right thing to do would have been to admit your mistake in setting the line.
I doubt you will have a single subscriber to your "premium" information and you will lose hits to your website, which will make it less attractive to potential advertisers.
he still got the pick right based on the spread he used. There's no mistake to admit to lol. And he doesnt even have any advertisements on his site.
Carry on
I am a mathematician also (Masters Degree) and have my own system, and it has picked about 56% over the years. I think you are on to something, and I cannot fault you for wanting to make some money for all the work you do. but heck, there are a few experts who have good reputations that I can get their picks for free on the Hilton contest. I am a small time better, as I suspect many are. I might pay 20 dollars a year for your picks, not that they aren't worth more to some, but they are not worth more to me. good luck.
"he still got the pick right based on the spread he used"
Jamie DID NOT get the pick right based on the spread available to every bettor in the world. TEN did not cover 1.5
I could get any pick right if I reversed the spread like Jamie did. What he is asking us to believe is that he found a site that had TEN as a 1.5 pt favorite and ALL the other sites, just coincidently had CLE as the same 1.5 pt favorite. He obviously made a mistake and lost all credibility not admitting to it.
I am not a hater. I have actually enjoyed using the information you have provided to improve my picks. (I havent made a dime yet. I play in a pick 4 contest, mostly for enjoyment and bragging rights, and you havent gotten all 4 picks correct yet.)
But you are missing the point.
The fact that you leave this blog up is a credit to your integrity. The fact that your making excuses for a mistake is not.
Also, the final line was Cle-1.5, so if you wanted to place that wager, the opportunity was there. (I realize Jaime uses early lines, but there's still some validity to this point).
I realize you are new to the site, but I have been following it for several years (2009, if not earlier). While having a 0.5 or 1 point difference between the line Jaime posts and what I see available isn't terribly uncommon (and it's not always in his favor), anything larger than that is rare, so he definitely isn't getting an edge by buying himself 3 points frequently. One questionable win isn't enough to supersede his record over the last 6 seasons. His record this year would be 11-8 (58%) this season if the line was different (I presume it would have become a no bet).
If he did make a mistake, he's dug his heels in so far, that it would do him more harm at this point to admit that he made a mistake and that lied countless times defending it. While this didn't work out for President Clinton, there is no Ken Starr who is going to bring forth evidence contradicting what Jaime has claimed. Just accept it, or don't, and move on. END. OF. STORY.