NFL Betting Picks - Week 2
Pick 1: Washington -5.5 
Pick 2: Arizona -2.5
Pick 3: Kansas City +13
Pick 4: San Francisco -7
My wife was listening to NFL Radio on SiriusXM on her commute to work. As a psychiatrist, she started analyzing every caller and convinced me that my picks should be very relevant from the beginning of the season. Her argument is that people are very emotional at the beginning of the season because they have high hopes for their teams given the clean slate. She argues that could be a big reason why the first week picks were successful.
My response to that is that given I only analyze team level data, my models have a big assumption(that I have to continuously check and hope you help): team composition/competitiveness is nearly constant in recent games. That means that if for example St Louis has a new QB and not enough data has been gathered with Shaun Hill, then the Rams' computer spread forecasts should be avoided because their skill level is not the same as previous recent games.
We will start tabulating results this week. All are official picks from now on. To be more conservative, we'll start with a smaller bankroll percentage in the first few weeks 12% until week 5 where will step up to 15% and go up to possibly 25% towards the end of the season depending on success rates. Here are week 2 NFL point spread predictions:
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Arizona -2.5
Pick 3: Kansas City +13
Pick 4: San Francisco -7
My wife was listening to NFL Radio on SiriusXM on her commute to work. As a psychiatrist, she started analyzing every caller and convinced me that my picks should be very relevant from the beginning of the season. Her argument is that people are very emotional at the beginning of the season because they have high hopes for their teams given the clean slate. She argues that could be a big reason why the first week picks were successful.
My response to that is that given I only analyze team level data, my models have a big assumption(that I have to continuously check and hope you help): team composition/competitiveness is nearly constant in recent games. That means that if for example St Louis has a new QB and not enough data has been gathered with Shaun Hill, then the Rams' computer spread forecasts should be avoided because their skill level is not the same as previous recent games.
We will start tabulating results this week. All are official picks from now on. To be more conservative, we'll start with a smaller bankroll percentage in the first few weeks 12% until week 5 where will step up to 15% and go up to possibly 25% towards the end of the season depending on success rates. Here are week 2 NFL point spread predictions:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JACKSONVILLE @ WASHINGTON | -5.5 | -9.3 | -3.8 | 63.0% |
| ARIZONA @ NY GIANTS | 2.5 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 59.8% |
| KANSAS CITY @ DENVER | -13 | -9.1 | 3.9 | 57.1% |
| CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO | -7 | -19.0 | -12.0 | 57.0% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ INDIANAPOLIS | -3 | -4.5 | -1.5 | 51.4% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ MINNESOTA | 3.5 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 51.1% |
| DETROIT @ CAROLINA | -2.5 | -5.2 | -2.7 | 50.0% |
| ST LOUIS @ TAMPA BAY | -6 | -5.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE | -2.5 | -0.6 | 1.9 | 50.0% |
| DALLAS @ TENNESSEE | -3.5 | -2.3 | 1.2 | 50.0% |
| ATLANTA @ CINCINNATI | -5 | -10.5 | -5.5 | 49.9% |
| SEATTLE @ SAN DIEGO | 6 | 5.3 | -0.7 | 49.0% |
| HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 3 | -5.4 | -8.4 | 49.0% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ CLEVELAND | 6.5 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 48.3% |
| MIAMI @ BUFFALO | 1 | -0.2 | -1.2 | 48.3% |
| NY JETS @ GREEN BAY | -8.5 | -3.8 | 4.7 | 47.4% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
I stumbled upon your website, and the "experiment" you are doing with the bankroll and everything is the kind of mathematical/statistical thing I like to do when trying out something... I am however confused as to how to you bet on your picks... do you simply place an equal unit on each individual game? do you parlay any of them? do you bet more units on pick #1? etc...
Thanks!