2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 5
Pick 1: Seattle -7 
Pick 2: Cincinnati -1.5
Pick 3: San Diego -7
Pick 4: Tennessee +1.5
What the hell is wrong with Carolina? One of the best defenses of the league last year. The team has definitely changed from last year so after two weeks in a row of losing that bet, I'll keep away from them until more data is in. Buffalo was close and don't think I should have changed that bet. I should have evaluated the Dallas #MNF and Indianapolis confidence percentage. Like my friend told me during a kids birthday parties as I checked results over my phone, it's about the long run. My response is that I get that, but it's much better to say how many winning seasons one gets.
This week we try to capitalize on the Redskins QB weakness, ride on New England's issues, keep betting our favorite pony and best ATS record Chargers, and two bad teams guessing the home team is slightly better. Cool thing is that we have SNF and MNF games.
Since we are now in week 5, we up to 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $360 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Cincinnati -1.5
Pick 3: San Diego -7
Pick 4: Tennessee +1.5
What the hell is wrong with Carolina? One of the best defenses of the league last year. The team has definitely changed from last year so after two weeks in a row of losing that bet, I'll keep away from them until more data is in. Buffalo was close and don't think I should have changed that bet. I should have evaluated the Dallas #MNF and Indianapolis confidence percentage. Like my friend told me during a kids birthday parties as I checked results over my phone, it's about the long run. My response is that I get that, but it's much better to say how many winning seasons one gets.
This week we try to capitalize on the Redskins QB weakness, ride on New England's issues, keep betting our favorite pony and best ATS record Chargers, and two bad teams guessing the home team is slightly better. Cool thing is that we have SNF and MNF games.
Since we are now in week 5, we up to 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $360 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEATTLE @ WASHINGTON | 7 | 13.0 | 6 | 61.5% |
| CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND | 1.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 60.0% |
| NY JETS @ SAN DIEGO | -7 | -19.1 | -12.1 | 59.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE | 1.5 | -4.2 | -6.7 | 58.6% |
| ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS | -4 | -4.9 | -0.9 | 56.3% |
| ST LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA | -7 | -8.0 | -1.0 | 54.6% |
| BALTIMORE @ INDIANAPOLIS | -3.5 | -5.2 | -1.7 | 54.4% |
| TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | -10 | -7.0 | 3.0 | 52.7% |
| HOUSTON @ DALLAS | -6 | -12.1 | -6.1 | 51.4% |
| CHICAGO @ CAROLINA | -2.5 | -4.9 | -2.4 | 50.0% |
| BUFFALO @ DETROIT | -7 | -6.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% |
| ARIZONA @ DENVER | -7.5 | -7.3 | 0.2 | 50.0% |
| MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY | -9 | -7.4 | 1.6 | 50.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE | 7 | 4.4 | -2.6 | 49.7% |
| KANSAS CITY @ SAN FRANCISCO | -6.5 | -2.2 | 4.3 | 48.4% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Double check the CLE@TEN line. I've only seen it as TEN -1.5. Just wondering if it was a typo on your end and TEN is still a bet, or if it was an oversight (or maybe your site offers nicer odds than mine!!)
Not sure if you recall, but last season we briefly discussed working on rank preservation within your confidence grids (e.g. you should be more confident in a -9.5 estimate than a -8.5 estimate when the line is -3.5). Wondering if you were interested in continuing that discussion? I'd be fine starting an analysis on it if you don't have the time.
-4.2 - (-1.5) = -2.7 as your (Prediction-Vegas) states which would be consistent with the readers who have found the TEN -1.5 line...
Seems like I and very few others saw this line. I'm starting to suspect it was an error from casino that only lasted for a few hours. Stay off that bet because as Alan said, the confidence does change if the spread is changed.
15-San Diego
14-Seattle
13-Dallas
12-Philadelphia
11-Green Bay
10-Denver
9-New Orleans
8-Detroit
7-Indianapolis
6-NY Giants
5-Carolina
4-Pittsburgh
3-Cincinnati
2-Tennessee
1-San Francisco
I'm totally new to football. Please tell me if I'm doing this all wrong!
Cleveland is the dog, at least be honest or your record has no meaning.
You can't just say "I found this line at the time I made my pick"...
All I am saying is, be consistent and take your line from ONE place for every pick otherwise it isn't fair to claim success when the rest of us can't shop around to find the very best lines for our plays.
Jaime, while I agree with your remark that if you can't get the line, don't bet it, I think this guys point is that no one could find that line (at the time), so you including it as a victory misrepresents your record. Like, if I was to post picks where I'm always saying the line is 7 points different than the consensus, of course I'll end up with a winning record. In the interests of transparency, would you consider sharing your source for odds? It would put an end to these discussions that pop up from time to time.
Cheers