NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4 - 2013
Pick 1: Miami +7 
Pick 2: Minnesota +1
Pick 3: New England +2
Pick 4: Chicago +2.5
Pick 5: Tampa Bay -2.5
Selected picks last week went 1-1-2, unfortunately because Denver gave up the ball in the last 2 minutes. This will be the last week of unofficial picks and from week 5 forward we'll start tabulating results and making recommendations of what percentage of bankroll to bet every week. We'll also do a bit more explanation as why we think each game is being selected by the probabilities and understand the results coming out along with some high-level NFL analysis. As always, we run the data through our ensemble of algorithms to product computerized NFL picks. Lots of .5 that might be worth buying a few points, up to you. Here are the NFL week 4 point spread predictions:
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Minnesota +1
Pick 3: New England +2
Pick 4: Chicago +2.5
Pick 5: Tampa Bay -2.5
Selected picks last week went 1-1-2, unfortunately because Denver gave up the ball in the last 2 minutes. This will be the last week of unofficial picks and from week 5 forward we'll start tabulating results and making recommendations of what percentage of bankroll to bet every week. We'll also do a bit more explanation as why we think each game is being selected by the probabilities and understand the results coming out along with some high-level NFL analysis. As always, we run the data through our ensemble of algorithms to product computerized NFL picks. Lots of .5 that might be worth buying a few points, up to you. Here are the NFL week 4 point spread predictions:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIAMI @ NEW ORLEANS | -7.0 | -0.6 | 6.4 | 63.7% |
| MINNESOTA - PITTSBURGH, London | -1 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 61.4% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ ATLANTA | -2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 60.0% |
| CHICAGO @ DETROIT | -2.5 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 59.0% |
| ARIZONA @ TAMPA BAY | -2.5 | -8.5 | -6.0 | 58.4% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS | 4 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 56.5% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ DENVER | -11.5 | -15.5 | -4.0 | 53.4% |
| WASHINGTON @ OAKLAND | 3 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 51.9% |
| SEATTLE @ HOUSTON | 3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 51.9% |
| BALTIMORE @ BUFFALO | 3.5 | 1.5 | -2.0 | 50.1% |
| NY JETS @ TENNESSEE | -4 | -2.2 | 1.8 | 50.0% |
| NY GIANTS @ KANSAS CITY | -5 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 50.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 5 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 49.6% |
| DALLAS @ SAN DIEGO | 2.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 49.3% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 9.5 | 8 | -1.5 | 49.1% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
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