NFL Point Spread Picks Week 1 - 2013
Pick 1: Miami +1 
Pick 2: Atlanta +3
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -7
As I mentioned and explain in my previous post, these are unofficial picks. Meaning my models need at least 4 weeks of data for them to become useful and accurate. So although we post these computerized picks here, we don't use them or tabulate the end results in our results table on the right hand side of this page. Still, I like to run them because people ask for them to simply see what the outputs look like. Be patient and don't bet on these picks. We'll wait a few weeks and then bank on our statistical point spread predictions that have proven successful for the past 6 years. Good luck!
HOUSTON @ SAN DIEGO
4
1
-3
51.9%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA
3.5
4.2
0.7
51.9%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS
-3.5
-3
0.5
51.8%
CINCINNATI @ CHICAGO
-3
-5.8
-2.8
51.4%
TAMPA BAY @ NY JETS
3
9.6
6.6
51.1%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
-5.5
2.0
7.5
50.0%
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS
-9.5
-7.7
1.8
50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO
9.5
6.5
-3.0
50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON
-3.5
-11.2
-7.7
49.2%
KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE
3.5
-5.3
-8.8
49.0%
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Atlanta +3
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -7
As I mentioned and explain in my previous post, these are unofficial picks. Meaning my models need at least 4 weeks of data for them to become useful and accurate. So although we post these computerized picks here, we don't use them or tabulate the end results in our results table on the right hand side of this page. Still, I like to run them because people ask for them to simply see what the outputs look like. Be patient and don't bet on these picks. We'll wait a few weeks and then bank on our statistical point spread predictions that have proven successful for the past 6 years. Good luck!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIAMI @ CLEVELAND | -1 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 60.0% |
| ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS | -3 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 59.9% |
| TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH | -7 | -13.3 | -6.3 | 58.1% |
| BALTIMORE @ DENVER | -7.5 | -9.2 | -1.7 | 56.1% |
| ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS | -4.5 | -8.4 | -3.9 | 53.8% |
| GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO | -4.5 | -8.0 | -3.5 | 53.8% |
HOUSTON @ SAN DIEGO
4
1
-3
51.9%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA
3.5
4.2
0.7
51.9%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS
-3.5
-3
0.5
51.8%
CINCINNATI @ CHICAGO
-3
-5.8
-2.8
51.4%
TAMPA BAY @ NY JETS
3
9.6
6.6
51.1%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
-5.5
2.0
7.5
50.0%
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS
-9.5
-7.7
1.8
50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO
9.5
6.5
-3.0
50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON
-3.5
-11.2
-7.7
49.2%
KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE
3.5
-5.3
-8.8
49.0%
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
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Ken