Week 11 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Baltimore +3.5
Pick 2: New Orleans -4.5
Pick 3: Green Bay -3.5

Rough week last week but at least we're still above water. Hoping for a 3-0 this week and I'm liking what came out of these computerized picks this week. Three undervalue visiting teams. All having good momentum going and coming out of great wins.

We continue this week at 18% of bankroll. For 3 games this week, it gives us a total of $320 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-3.5	3.1	6.6	62.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ OAKLAND	4.5	9.4	4.9	56.5%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	3.5	6.7	3.2	56.5%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	-7.5	-4.8	2.7	55.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	-3	-4.5	-1.5	52.7%
CLEVELAND @ DALLAS	-7.5	-9.7	-2.2	50.9%
CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO	-5	-4.0	1.0	50.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-16	-18.9	-2.9	50.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	-1.5	3.2	4.7	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY	3.5	6.4	2.9	49.8%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA	-10	-9.1	0.9	49.1%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH	-13	-12.7	0.3	49.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND	-9	-18.4	-9.4	48.7%
NY JETS @ ST LOUIS	-3	5.4	8.4	48.4%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	1.5	-2.1	-3.6	47.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.