Week 6 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks
Pick 1: Miami -3.5 PUSH (with insurance)
Pick 2: Washington -1.5
Pick 3: Baltimore -3.5
Pick 4: San Francisco -5
Surprisingly 4 home team favorites for this week's point spread picks. I'm personally more biased towards the yellow picks given how well the 49ers are playing and how bad the Cowboys are doing. We're again going with 15% of bankroll for 4 games giving us $190 per game.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Washington -1.5
Pick 3: Baltimore -3.5
Pick 4: San Francisco -5
Surprisingly 4 home team favorites for this week's point spread picks. I'm personally more biased towards the yellow picks given how well the 49ers are playing and how bad the Cowboys are doing. We're again going with 15% of bankroll for 4 games giving us $190 per game.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST LOUIS @ MIAMI | -3.5 | -8.7 | -5.2 | 67.5% |
| MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON | -1.5 | -7 | -5.5 | 62.6% |
| DALLAS @ BALTIMORE | -3.5 | -11.7 | -8.2 | 59.1% |
| NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO | -5 | -10.0 | -5.0 | 58.8% |
| DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA | -4.5 | -7.1 | -2.6 | 55.5% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE | 3.5 | 1.5 | -2.0 | 54.1% |
| KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.5 | 53.8% |
| BUFFALO @ ARIZONA | -4.5 | -15.7 | -11.2 | 51.6% |
| DENVER @ SAN DIEGO | -2 | -3.9 | -1.9 | 51.4% |
| PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE | 5 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 50.7% |
| OAKLAND @ ATLANTA | -8.5 | -20.0 | -11.5 | 50.4% |
| GREEN BAY @ HOUSTON | -4 | -7.8 | -3.8 | 50.3% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS | -3 | -12.1 | -9.1 | 50.1% |
| CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 2 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 49.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
My first picks of the season are up.
I have Falcons -9, Broncos +1.5, Cardinals -5. So no overlap. Good luck!