2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15
Pick 1: Houston +1.5 
Pick 2: Kansas City +1.5
Pick 3: Detroit +6
Pick 4: Washington +6
4 visiting underdogs this week. Again, the model is favoring visiting teams and coincidentally this week they are all underdogs. We got Houston, who in my opinion shouldn't even be underdogs against Tennessee. Did you see that comeback yesterday? Next we have KC. The Rams disappointed me last week. This is an important game for both teams, but KC is the stronger team. Detroit, now at the top of the ATS standings should give Tampa a scare. Lots of scoring will favor the Lions in this one. Finally, we have the Redskins. I don't like the Redskins and it seems that Dallas is playing relatively well since firing their head coach. But we have to stick to what we got, hopefully they keep it close as they did last week with Tampa.
Other notable picks include: Bears and Browns.
Again, using 25% of bankroll we designate approximately $115 to each game.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Kansas City +1.5
Pick 3: Detroit +6
Pick 4: Washington +6
4 visiting underdogs this week. Again, the model is favoring visiting teams and coincidentally this week they are all underdogs. We got Houston, who in my opinion shouldn't even be underdogs against Tennessee. Did you see that comeback yesterday? Next we have KC. The Rams disappointed me last week. This is an important game for both teams, but KC is the stronger team. Detroit, now at the top of the ATS standings should give Tampa a scare. Lots of scoring will favor the Lions in this one. Finally, we have the Redskins. I don't like the Redskins and it seems that Dallas is playing relatively well since firing their head coach. But we have to stick to what we got, hopefully they keep it close as they did last week with Tampa.
Other notable picks include: Bears and Browns.
Again, using 25% of bankroll we designate approximately $115 to each game.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE | -1.5 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 65.4% |
| KANSAS CITY @ ST LOUIS | -1.5 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 63.7% |
| DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY | -6 | 1 | 7 | 62.8% |
| WASHINGTON @ DALLAS | -6 | -1 | 5 | 60.8% |
| CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | -1.5 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 57.1% |
| CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA | -1.5 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 57.0% |
| DENVER @ OAKLAND | -6.5 | -9.5 | -3 | 54.8% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS | -3 | 3 | 6 | 54.7% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS | -5 | -7 | -2 | 53.3% |
| ATLANTA @ SEATTLE | 6 | 22.6 | 16.6 | 52.8% |
| ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | -2.5 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 52.1% |
| BUFFALO @ MIAMI | -5.5 | -7 | -1.5 | 52.0% |
| NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH | -6 | -2.6 | 3.4 | 50.0% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE | -1.5 | -2.1 | -0.6 | 50.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ SAN DIEGO | -9 | -10 | -1 | 49.7% |
| GREEN BAY @ NEW ENGLAND | -10.5 | -14 | -3.5 | 48.7% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
I don't like making picks after Week 14 because of motivational issues. But I did run my model, and its unofficial picks for the week are Bills +5, Steelers -6, and Eagles +2.
I'm surprised you're not taking the Bears against the Vikings.
Are you making official picks during the playoffs?
Subjectively, I like the Bears there b/c T.Jackson didn't look good and he might not even play this weekend. Playing outdoors may favor the Bears too. Not sure if that CHI +1.5 line is really available outside of the Las Vegas Hilton though.
209 Cardinals +2.5
308 Colts -5.5
311 Browns +1
Unofficially adding Browns +1.
I understand that. I'm asking about the playoffs. Do you make picks during the playoffs?