2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: Philadelphia -3 PUSH
Pick 2: Baltimore -3
Pick 3: St. Louis +9.5

Finally a good week! and much needed. This week again the model is favoring visiting teams. Last week we had Atlanta barely covering and the Rams covering on the road. (plus NE's @home embarrassment to the Jets, covered by way more than 3). This week, I have two strong teams on the road playing non-playoff contenders. Philadelphia goes to Dallas and takes care of business. Baltimore's defense gets two TDs and blows past 5-7 Houston. Finally, the Rams are underdogs by 9.5 in New Orleans. This team is at the top of the ATS Standings and I'm not sure why they are not been given a bit more credit. The Rams lose the game, but keep it close.

Other notable picks include: Giants, Bills.

Again, using 25% of bankroll we designate approximately 150 to each game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	3	6.6	3.3	62.9%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON	3	6.7	3.7	60.5%
ST LOUIS @ NEW ORLEANS	-9.5	-5.4	4	60.1%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA	1.5	3	1.5	59.2%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO	-1	-3.3	-2.3	58.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-7	-5.0	2.0	56.1%
DENVER @ ARIZONA	4	-4	-8	53.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	7.5	14.6	7.1	52.4%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-9	-6.4	2.6	52.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	3	8.6	5.6	51.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO	3	-3.2	-6.2	50.0%
MIAMI @ NY JETS	-6.5	-6	0.5	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON	2.5	-2.2	-4.7	49.6%
OAKLAND @ JACKSONVILLE	-4.5	-6	-1.5	49.1%
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	7	5.4	-1.6	49.0%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-4.5	-11.6	-7.1	47.5%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.