2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10
Pick 1: Chicago +1 
Pick 2: Philadelphia -3
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -4.5
Pick 4: Tennessee -1
Pick 5: Baltimore +1
This week we have 5 picks above the 57% threshold. For the first time, last week I made the exception to choose above 60 and lost two opportunities: TB and OAK. Never again. This week I personally don't like PIT or Baltimore and probably like Chicago 'cause I like the Bears. But this is what the model spita out, and believe it or not, I'm still confident we will come out winning this season.
Using 20% of bankroll for these week's picks, gives us $66/game. St. Louis came out strong underdog pick against SF, but given that both starting QBs are out, I will stay away from this game. Anything other significant injuries I may have missed?
Can you believe that Detroit is 8-1 and St. Louis is 6-2 ATS? Talking about picking a pony. To see current point spread standings click here.
Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 10 of 2010.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Philadelphia -3
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -4.5
Pick 4: Tennessee -1
Pick 5: Baltimore +1
This week we have 5 picks above the 57% threshold. For the first time, last week I made the exception to choose above 60 and lost two opportunities: TB and OAK. Never again. This week I personally don't like PIT or Baltimore and probably like Chicago 'cause I like the Bears. But this is what the model spita out, and believe it or not, I'm still confident we will come out winning this season.
Using 20% of bankroll for these week's picks, gives us $66/game. St. Louis came out strong underdog pick against SF, but given that both starting QBs are out, I will stay away from this game. Anything other significant injuries I may have missed?
Can you believe that Detroit is 8-1 and St. Louis is 6-2 ATS? Talking about picking a pony. To see current point spread standings click here.
Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 10 of 2010.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO | 1 | -6.5 | -7.5 | 63.4% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 3 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 60.3% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH | -4.5 | -7 | -2.5 | 58.0% |
| TENNESSEE @ MIAMI | 1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 57.1% |
| BALTIMORE @ ATLANTA | -1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 57.1% |
| ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO | -6 | 4.5 | 10.5 | NA |
| CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS | -7 | -12.4 | -5.4 | 52.2% |
| DETROIT @ BUFFALO | -3 | -4.5 | -1.5 | 52.2% |
| SEATTLE @ ARIZONA | -3 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 51.1% |
| KANSAS CITY @ DENVER | 1 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 50.0% |
| CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY | -6.5 | -14.4 | -7.9 | 50.0% |
| DALLAS @ NY GIANTS | -14 | -15.1 | -1,1 | 49.1% |
| NY JETS @ CLEVELAND | 3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 48.7% |
| HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE | -1.5 | -3 | -1.5 | 48.6% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Congrats on your Steelers pick Monday.
You and I overlap quite a bit (3 picks) this week. My model likes: Ravens +1, Bears +3, Colts -7, and Eagles -3
I may have another later in the week.
Last week's 1-1 performance brought me to 6-3-1 on the season.
Falcons(pick),Titans(-1.5),Bears(+3),Rams(+5),Eagles(-3.5)
Good Luck Everyone!
222 Chicago +1 [**]
228 Bucs/Panthers UNDER 35.5
223 Lions +3
Remember when you made those "Who'll be best ATS?" polls? I kept picking my Lions.. guess it wasn't just wishful thinking.
Good luck, every week.
Titans (-1.5)
Bears (+1)
Patriots (+5.5)
I cancelled the Lions (Stafford's status is questionable) and the Cowboys (new coach, and they suck) who were technically picked.
The Chiefs, Rams, and Seahawks are all very close to being picks, and may be depending on spread movements.
Ben
I know your question wasn't directed at me, but I also found Bears +3 last night. I choose lines from three sites: bodog, betdsi, and betus. Bears +3 was on betus at -110 last night.
Falcons –1
Vikings –1
Texans +1
SEA-ARIZ under 41
Miami will be starting Chad Pennington at QB this week, which might skew your Tennesee pick. I think short term, Pennington is an upgrade over Henne....long term, I don't know what the Dolphins are doing.
I have had some good luck with looking at the opening point and which way the public is betting and either taking it before it sinks or watching it climb...depending on which way I'm betting. I'm sure that is not news to you guys though.
week 1: 2-0
week 2: 0-1
week 3: N/A
week 4: 0-1
week 5: 1-1
week 6: 1-0
week 7: 0-1
week 8: 1-0
week 9: 0-1-1
week 10: 2-0