2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8
Pick 1: Miami 0 
Pick 2: St Louis -3
Pick 3: KC -7.5
Pick 4: Tennessee +3.5
Pick 5: Pittsburgh 0
As we continue our slump this year, I keep reminding myself that this is a long-term strategy and not a get rich quick scheme. Yes, last year was nice because we started something like 9-2, but we fell. This year, the hopes are now that the great weeks are about to come.
This week, all home teams are favorites or its a straight pick (i.e. spread is zero). So, no home underdogs picks. I do like what I see in this week's picks. One thing that stood out to me was that the KC, TEN, and PIT games, the predicted spread is off by more than 10 points than the Vegas spread. Why do you think this is? Is NO overrated? KC being 5-1 ATS, are they still underrated against a weak Buffalo team? Detroit is favorite this week! I wonder when was the last time that happened. Being 5-1 ATS helps. Couple of games I would stay away is Dallas and Minnesota.
I continue my best effort to provide the best NFL spread picks data can answer and an optimal betting strategy to go along with it. Unfortunately, our bankroll has decreased 11% since we started so bumping the week's bankroll use to 20% leave us with approximately $360 for the week, $72 a game.
Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 8 of 2010.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: St Louis -3
Pick 3: KC -7.5
Pick 4: Tennessee +3.5
Pick 5: Pittsburgh 0
As we continue our slump this year, I keep reminding myself that this is a long-term strategy and not a get rich quick scheme. Yes, last year was nice because we started something like 9-2, but we fell. This year, the hopes are now that the great weeks are about to come.
This week, all home teams are favorites or its a straight pick (i.e. spread is zero). So, no home underdogs picks. I do like what I see in this week's picks. One thing that stood out to me was that the KC, TEN, and PIT games, the predicted spread is off by more than 10 points than the Vegas spread. Why do you think this is? Is NO overrated? KC being 5-1 ATS, are they still underrated against a weak Buffalo team? Detroit is favorite this week! I wonder when was the last time that happened. Being 5-1 ATS helps. Couple of games I would stay away is Dallas and Minnesota.
I continue my best effort to provide the best NFL spread picks data can answer and an optimal betting strategy to go along with it. Unfortunately, our bankroll has decreased 11% since we started so bumping the week's bankroll use to 20% leave us with approximately $360 for the week, $72 a game.
Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 8 of 2010.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIAMI @ CINCINNATI | 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 61.4% |
| CAROLINA @ ST LOUIS | -3 | -18.9 | -15.9 | 59.0% |
| BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY | -7.5 | -21.4 | -13.9 | 58.3% |
| TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO | -3.5 | 11.2 | 14.7 | 57.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ NEW ORLEANS | 0 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 56.9% |
| HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS | -5.5 | -3.4 | 2.1 | 55.6% |
| MINNESOTA @ NEW ENGLAND | -6 | -5.3 | 0.7 | 55.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS | -6.5 | -11.7 | -5.2 | 53.3% |
| TAMPA BAY @ ARIZONA | -3 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 52.9% |
| GREEN BAY @ NY JETS | -6 | -8.2 | -2.2 | 50.1% |
| SEATTLE @ OAKLAND | -2.5 | -3.8 | -1.3 | 45.0% |
| WASHINGTON @ DETROIT | -2.5 | -3.5 | -1 | 45.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO - DENVER | 0 | -10.4 | -10.4 | off-London |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
My picks for the week.
PITT +1
TBY +3
TEN +3.5
RAMS –3
Other highlighted plays.
KC -7.5
PATS –5.5
Looks like full agreement so far on the Titans.
221 Titans +3.5
223 Buccs +3
218 Bengals -2
I'm not super-excited about the Bengals pick, but it just barely squeaked into qualification and with nothing else close, I'm going ahead and taking it.
Best of luck on everything (except Miami) this week, Jaime!
We don't agree on the MIAMI pick. And KC could be good. Nothing on STL?
216 Rams -3
219 Bills +7.5
So, one each agree/disagree. But I don't feel strongly about these. In fact, the next best selection I had after the Bengals was:
212 Lions -2.5
But, as much as I love my Lions, I think the model might be overvaluing their home performance vs the Rams. Admittedly not so much that it drove them into "pick" territory or that I can spot the flaw... just a hunch.
I would take the UNDER on the total again in a do-over situation!
18.23 PITTSB 23
23.76 MIAMI 22
Really, my projected score in that game was 23-18. Although crude, my method was 5-2 on totals last three weeks. I simply take the teams (total yards / 9.7) –10. Looking for differences of 9+. None even close this week, but as an example I have Den 24.73 to SF 20.36.
How do you guys project totals..?
In any case, I use some of the same information I use to handicap the games to drive my total model. It it's heart it's a look at the Poisson distribution of expected per-side scoring totals.. with some vaguely secret sauce to tighten it up and give me reasonable probabilities.
Except that it's not working very well this year!
That's a little disappointing, especially considering that I called 3 of 3 on my "non-plays!"