2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6
Pick 1: St. Louis +8.5 
Pick 2: Green Bay -3.5
Pick 3: Baltimore +3 PUSH
NFL Week 5 Point Spread Review
High scoring games and a slew of yardage ended up in many surprising upsets. New Orleans a 7 point favorite got beat in Arizona. Other two heavy underdogs Oakland and Tennessee came up with big wins. The Giants were the underdog team who won by the biggest differential. Unbelievably so, the Lions put up their best offensive performances in years and brought down the Rams (a pick this week).
My picks went 2-3 for a 4% loss on investment. The good news is that all picks together went 64%, so we are definitely still in the game. We just need to jump right back this week with huge wins. Setting this week's bankroll budget at 19%, for the 3 games ahead of us, we'll invest 1915*.19/3 = $121 per game.
NFL Week 6 Point Spread Predictions
Home underdogs are everyone's favorites, especially when the margin is high. I'm not a believer in generalizing a betting strategy simply like that, but this week I like St.Louis jumping back from their loss and maybe coming up with a victory. Green Bay can score some points at home and if its defense holds (hopefully Clay Mathews plays), they can keep Miami near its season average of 16pts/game. Baltimore is a difficult pick since New England is scoring TDs like crazy. But I have to stick with my guns and forget about what I think is right.
Other noticeable picks are: Detroit, Tennessee, and Cleveland. Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 6 of 2010.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Green Bay -3.5
Pick 3: Baltimore +3 PUSH
NFL Week 5 Point Spread Review
High scoring games and a slew of yardage ended up in many surprising upsets. New Orleans a 7 point favorite got beat in Arizona. Other two heavy underdogs Oakland and Tennessee came up with big wins. The Giants were the underdog team who won by the biggest differential. Unbelievably so, the Lions put up their best offensive performances in years and brought down the Rams (a pick this week).
My picks went 2-3 for a 4% loss on investment. The good news is that all picks together went 64%, so we are definitely still in the game. We just need to jump right back this week with huge wins. Setting this week's bankroll budget at 19%, for the 3 games ahead of us, we'll invest 1915*.19/3 = $121 per game.
NFL Week 6 Point Spread Predictions
Home underdogs are everyone's favorites, especially when the margin is high. I'm not a believer in generalizing a betting strategy simply like that, but this week I like St.Louis jumping back from their loss and maybe coming up with a victory. Green Bay can score some points at home and if its defense holds (hopefully Clay Mathews plays), they can keep Miami near its season average of 16pts/game. Baltimore is a difficult pick since New England is scoring TDs like crazy. But I have to stick with my guns and forget about what I think is right.
Other noticeable picks are: Detroit, Tennessee, and Cleveland. Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 6 of 2010.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN DIEGO @ ST LOUIS | 8.5 | -5.2 | -13.7 | 61.5% |
| MIAMI @ GREEN BAY | -3.5 | -10.3 | -6.8 | 59.5% |
| BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND | -3 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 58.9% |
| CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH | -13.5 | -8.9 | 4.6 | 56.0% |
| DETROIT @ NY GIANTS | -10 | -6.4 | 3.6 | 55.0% |
| TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE | 3 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 53.5% |
| DALLAS @ MINNESOTA | -1.5 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 52.1% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY | 4.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 51.9% |
| SEATTLE @ CHICAGO | -7 | -8.8 | -1.8 | 51.1% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ WASHINGTON | 3 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 50.0% |
| ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | -3 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 50.0% |
| NY JETS @ DENVER | 3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 50.0% |
| KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON | -4.5 | 7 | 11.5 | 49.5% |
| OAKLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO | -6.5 | 10.0 | 16.5 | 46.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Ah, well. 2-1 last week... I have a nebulous sense of dread about this week's picks, but I made them anyway.
216 Buccs +4.5
219 Lions +10
211 Chiefs +4.5
226 Steelers/Browns UNDER 37.5
Good luck! I know you've got another winning season in you!
I've started a site dedicated to making statistically based picks at Probable Picks. I followed your site all last season and am excited to join the conversation. My first picks are up for this week here.
My model is pointing to the Jets -3, Rams +8.5, Colts -3 and Chiefs +4.5.
My model also points toward the Ravens, but doesn't reach the confidence threshold to make it an official pick.
I actually think our picks (your actual picks, and my backtest picks) tend complement each other. We don't have a lot of overlapping picks, which makes me think that we are approaching the problem from different angles. It also suggests that there are more misplaced lines than I would have guessed.
My picks for the week.
KC +4.5
TB +4.5
AYL +3
Oak +6.5
Let's hope we have a little more luck on our side this week. Here's my picks vs yours:
SD -8.5
GB -3.5
NE -3
My picks last week were horrible, anything can happen on any given sunday.