2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4
Last week of unofficial picks. That means, starting next week we begin our official NFL pick betting strategy. Our goal is to continue to improve last year's 93% ROI. Every week, a number of games are selected and based on the current bankroll (now at $2K), we use Kelly's formula to determine what percentage of the bankroll to use each week. That money will then be distributed evenly to each game of the week. Stick with me, don't add/substract games, use my system and together we will beat the NFL point spread.
Please help! I want to know if you can help me determine which team will have the best record against the spread at the end of the regular season. Each week, you can put your vote HERE. It only takes a second, and if together we can determine early a conclusive winner, picking that team (or set of teams) might give us another great strategy. After your vote, you will see a link to view the results overall and by week. Thanks in advance.
As for point spread picks for week four, here are these week's system results:
Unofficial Pick 1: Seattle -1
Unofficial Pick 2: Chicago +4
Unofficial Pick 3: Houston -3
Unofficial Pick 4: Cincinnati -3
How to read the table:
Please help! I want to know if you can help me determine which team will have the best record against the spread at the end of the regular season. Each week, you can put your vote HERE. It only takes a second, and if together we can determine early a conclusive winner, picking that team (or set of teams) might give us another great strategy. After your vote, you will see a link to view the results overall and by week. Thanks in advance.
As for point spread picks for week four, here are these week's system results:
Unofficial Pick 1: Seattle -1
Unofficial Pick 2: Chicago +4
Unofficial Pick 3: Houston -3
Unofficial Pick 4: Cincinnati -3
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS | 1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 60.0% |
| CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS | -4 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 58.1% |
| HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 3 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 56.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 54.7% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 7.5 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 55.0% |
| WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA | -6 | -8.2 | -2.2 | 54.8% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA | -7 | -2.6 | 4.4 | 54.0% |
| ARIZONA @ SAN DIEGO | -8 | -5.0 | 3.0 | 51.7% |
| BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH | -1.5 | -3.0 | -1.5 | 51.4% |
| DENVER @ TENNESSEE | -6.5 | -2.1 | 4.6 | 50.0% |
| DETROIT @ GREEN BAY | -14.5 | -20.6 | -6.1 | 48.6% |
| CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS | -13.5 | -21.6 | -8.1 | 47.8% |
| NY JETS @ BUFFALO | 5.5 | 2.5 | -3.5 | 47.0% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 47.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
If I had used 100% 2010 data my picks were 7-4, three of those winners qualifying as best bets.
Anyone else come across similar results from last week?
I’m still afraid to bet these, but using 2010 data only the model is giving me 8 plays. I know that’s a lot, but if I don’t post them here no one else will ever know. Using Jamie’s vegas line, as a warm-up for next week.
Pit-1.5_Atl-7_Jets-5.5_Ind-7.5
Hou-3_SD-8_Chi+4_Mia+1
Best Bet…… Chi+4
The first 3 weeks have been an eye opener for this 2010 season. My picks vs yours for this week are as follows:
SEA -1
CHI +4
OAK +3
CIN -3
The oakland pick seems odd to me and that's not the way my gut would bet, but that's what the numbers are pointing to. Houston's horrible pass defense is what keeps this game in Oakland close
So how did I end up with these:
223 Bears +3.5
213 Jets -4.5
210 Falcons -6.5
225 Patriots -1 [Mon]
216 Colts/Jags OVER 46
The lines are from sometime Tuesday your time, I think.
Good luck on the week!
The games I'd bet this week are Philadelphia and San Diego to cover. This is the first week where I agree, by and large, with my system's picks. Hopefully that bodes well.
- Happy
I think it's a good idea. This bear's team has been impressive so far. I actually believe Chicago will win, but then again NYG are home and they are a very hot and cold team. The best of luck this weekend.
DDW
DDW if that pattern continues throughout the season, I will have to dive into finding out why.