2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8

Pick 1: Jacksonville +3 -$90
Pick 2: Miami +3.5 + $63.64
Pick 3: New Orleans -10 -$90 BS!
Pick 4: Minnesota +3 + $63.64

We (yes, you who follow my picks and I) are crushing the sports books. The hundreds of readers I get to this NFL spread picks blog daily apparently are taking advantage of these outrageously successful free NFL picks. The theory of the huge disparity of teams is hurting the sports books in Vegas according to Bad Teams Turn Sports Books into Losers and in part it could be my fault :)

Week 8
"Forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat in an unlit room, that may not even be there." - Steve Davidson

That is how I felt this week. Before I run my NFL statistical models of the point spread, I usually just do what any other regular person would do: look at spread for each game. Based on pure judgement, then I start thinking which games might be good opportunities. Usually, like this week, I end up with a completely different set of picks after running the stats. But this week I could not pinpoint a game where I was very confident (like last week Indi pick) that it would be a good pick and if the model confirmed even better. For example, this week I thought Giants should beat the Eagles, Houston will cover, and Bears suck so no way they'll win by more than two TDs, although none of them I was completely excited about.

This week, since the confidence levels are a bit lower, according to Kelly's formula the bankroll will decrease as well. We'll be using 18% of bankroll weighted close to probabilities.

Then, I ran the stats and soon after these 4 picks showed up I was a bit skeptic, but the more I think about them the more I like them. Here is why:

JAC @ TEN $90 - Ok so Vince Young is starting, does that mean they're better? No, if not he would have started at the beginning of the season and would have led the team last year to a 13-3 record.

ATL @ NO $90 - Who can bet against the Saints? If you did last week, at the 3rd quarter you were probably thinking of banking the money, oops. This team is amazing and so fun to watch, can't wait to see them Monday night at home. They are undefeated both straight up and against the spread.

MIA @ NYJ $70 - Miami beat them this year and will beat them again. Don't judge this game by their W/L records, Miami has had a slighter tougher schedule. Chad Henne is playing relatively well and Ricky Williams is rocking. Mr. Sanchez will throw a couple of INTs.

MIN @ GB $70 - Will Favre be playing at home or away? Who will everyone at Green Bay cheer for? In any case, I think it is Mr Peterson who will dominate. He's been quiet the past few weeks, due for a break out game.

Below our NFL week 8 point spread estimates and confidence percentages:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-3	3.1	6.1	59%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS	-10	-13.8	-3.8	58%
MIAMI @ NY JETS	-3	2.7	5.7	56%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-3	0.4	3.4	56%
DENVER @ BALTIMORE	-3.5	-1.6	1.9	52%
HOUSTON @ BUFFALO	3.5	9.2	5.7	50%
SAN FRANCISCO @ INDIANAPOLIS	-12.5	-12.6	-0.1	50%
ST LOUIS @ DETROIT	-4	-5.7	-1.7	48%
CLEVELAND @ CHICAGO	-13.5	-22.5	-9.0	46%
CAROLINA @ ARIZONA	-10	-19.6	-9.6	43%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO	-16.5	-12.5	4.0	42%
SEATTLE @ DALLAS	-9.5	-3.3	6.2	42%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	0	-2.2	-2.2	40%