2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6
Pick 1: New England -9 
+ $90.91
Pick 2: Philadelphia -14
-$100
Pick 3: Denver +4 + $90.91
Should we keep banking on weak teams? Today I read an article (that I couldn't find on the Chicago Reader website) about how 2009 is geared towards having the most number of teams with less than 3 wins for the season. In marketing, we would classify NFL teams into 3 buckets: great, average, terrible. Michael Lombardi wrote an interesting article on this phenomenon of a huge disparity between best and worst NFL teams.
In a market, these obvious opportunities shouldn't exist right? Only those that believe in the efficient market hypothesis would agree. The market should at least adjust. This week the Rams are a 14 point underdog, while last week it was 10 points. For Oakland, they are a 14 point underdog at home while they were 16 point last week, considering home field, market adjusted one point (assuming its opponents on both weeks belong to the above average group).
The question is: has the market adjusted enough? Has it made adjustments to all below average teams? Yes and no as my NFL week 6 picks show.
"Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it's about the future", but that will not stop us finding 'under priced' games.
Tennessee @ New England $100 - Tennessee is having quarterback insecurities. Its defense is suffering. The Patriots are returning to their old selves (except for last week's lesson with Denver). Randy Moss did not practice this week, but apparently not due to any injuries. No serious injuries leads to our first pick, the Patriots demolish the Titans at home.
Philadelphia @ Oakland $100 - The Eagles can score and they've shown it even without Westbrook. Oakland had a good game at home their first week against the Chargers, but that is all I've seen. Eagles by more that 3 TDs.
Denver @ San Diego $100 - I hated on Denver on last week's post comments. Afterwords, I read an article on Sports Illustrated about their defense, their 25 new players, and how Orton fits well with their play. This week, the model picks Denver and I'm going with it. By the way, Denver is 1 of 3 teams that is perfect against the spread. See the Point Spread Standings.
At the current bankroll, 20% of it gets us at $100 per game for this week. Good luck!
Other games to stay away:
Pittsburgh cannot run the ball without Parker and has yet to beat a team this year by more than 10 (and they even played Detroit). Cutler and Chicago's running game have to be proven before I feel comfortable with their pick. Rams may stand no chance in this game, but I still can't figure out in which slot does Jacksonville belong to after last week's debacle in Seattle.
Without further adieu, here are the 2009 Week 6 point spread predictions:
+ $90.91 Pick 2: Philadelphia -14
-$100Pick 3: Denver +4
+ $90.91Should we keep banking on weak teams? Today I read an article (that I couldn't find on the Chicago Reader website) about how 2009 is geared towards having the most number of teams with less than 3 wins for the season. In marketing, we would classify NFL teams into 3 buckets: great, average, terrible. Michael Lombardi wrote an interesting article on this phenomenon of a huge disparity between best and worst NFL teams.
In a market, these obvious opportunities shouldn't exist right? Only those that believe in the efficient market hypothesis would agree. The market should at least adjust. This week the Rams are a 14 point underdog, while last week it was 10 points. For Oakland, they are a 14 point underdog at home while they were 16 point last week, considering home field, market adjusted one point (assuming its opponents on both weeks belong to the above average group).
The question is: has the market adjusted enough? Has it made adjustments to all below average teams? Yes and no as my NFL week 6 picks show.
"Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it's about the future", but that will not stop us finding 'under priced' games.
Tennessee @ New England $100 - Tennessee is having quarterback insecurities. Its defense is suffering. The Patriots are returning to their old selves (except for last week's lesson with Denver). Randy Moss did not practice this week, but apparently not due to any injuries. No serious injuries leads to our first pick, the Patriots demolish the Titans at home.
Philadelphia @ Oakland $100 - The Eagles can score and they've shown it even without Westbrook. Oakland had a good game at home their first week against the Chargers, but that is all I've seen. Eagles by more that 3 TDs.
Denver @ San Diego $100 - I hated on Denver on last week's post comments. Afterwords, I read an article on Sports Illustrated about their defense, their 25 new players, and how Orton fits well with their play. This week, the model picks Denver and I'm going with it. By the way, Denver is 1 of 3 teams that is perfect against the spread. See the Point Spread Standings.
At the current bankroll, 20% of it gets us at $100 per game for this week. Good luck!
Other games to stay away:
Pittsburgh cannot run the ball without Parker and has yet to beat a team this year by more than 10 (and they even played Detroit). Cutler and Chicago's running game have to be proven before I feel comfortable with their pick. Rams may stand no chance in this game, but I still can't figure out in which slot does Jacksonville belong to after last week's debacle in Seattle.
Without further adieu, here are the 2009 Week 6 point spread predictions:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND | -9 | -12.6 | -3.6 | 63% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ OAKLAND | 14 | 22.2 | 8.2 | 61% |
| CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH | -14 | -15.1 | -1.1 | 59% |
| CHICAGO @ ATLANTA | -3 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 57% |
| DENVER @ SAN DIEGO | -4 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 57% |
| KANSAS CITY @ WASHINGTON | -6.5 | -9.8 | -3.3 | 56% |
| BUFFALO @ NY JETS | -9.5 | -11.0 | -1.5 | 54% |
| BALTIMORE @ MINNESOTA | -3 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 54% |
| HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI | -4.5 | -3.8 | 0.7 | 53% |
| ARIZONA @ SEATTLE | -3 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 50% |
| NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS | -3 | -4.5 | -1.5 | 47% |
| DETROIT @ GREEN BAY | -13.5 | -10.0 | 3.5 | 44% |
| CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY | 3.5 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 43% |
| ST LOUIS @ JACKSONVILLE | -10 | -16.7 | -6.7 | 41% |
Comments
If I were, these would be my picks:
New England -9
Raiders +14
Chargers -4
Again, I don't have much faith in any of these picks.
This week I'm looking at
Jets -10
Lions +14
Jaguars -10
Bengals -4.5
As you can see from my table, I would agree with your Jets, Lions, and Jaguars pick.
The Bengals, I'm not so sure about. I think their record reflects a couple of lucky TD passes and not a really strong team. Yes, they're young and have whole new staff, but they will come down. After this, all their previously misbehaved players will return to their old ways.
There are two problems that are hard to when making picks that I come across.
#1: Trust the model. It may see something that you don't and avoid the human bias.
#2 Human bias isn't necessarily a bad thing, if you have your information correct. But do you ever really know? Plus, modeling human behavior is hard as hell. Your most likely never going to get a great relationship.
To be honest, I'm more on the side of trusting the model, so much as it is a good one (but do you REALLY ever know?). So far it has been a decent 2009. (If you want the website for my picks, I'll e-mail it to you, I really just made it for some friends, so its simplistic.)
As for the Bengals, the Texans have disappointed nearly every game this season regarding spreads. I really expected them to come out shining this year, but it just isn't the case. I'll stick to the Bengals. Guess we will see!
I also added the pick:
Steelers -14
The browns just did so horribly last game. Did you see Anderson's total passing yards?
Pickles
BOBB
Happy
Vegas
CIN -3.8
CIN -4.4
CIN -0.4
CIN -4.5
__________________
GB -10
GB -12
GB -15.4
GB -13.5
__________________
MIN +1.0
MIN -3.6
MIN -4.2
MIN -3.0
__________________
NO -4.5
NO -4.8
NO -2.7
NO -3.0
__________________
PIT -15.1
PIT -16.4
PIT -14.3
PIT -14.0
__________________
TB +8.6
TB +2.2
TB +5.7
TB +3.0
__________________
WAS -9.8
WAS -7.4
WAS -5.5
WAS -6.5
__________________
JAC -16.7
JAC -14.1
JAC -11.9
JAC -9.5
__________________
SEA +7.5
SEA -1.5
SEA +0.4
SEA -3.0
__________________
OAK +22.2
OAK +14.0
OAK +15.0
OAK +14.0
__________________
NE -12.6
NE -2.8
NE -7.1
NE -9.5
__________________
NYJ -11.0
NYJ -8.8
NYJ -6.9
NYJ -10.0
__________________
ATL +2.4
ATL -4.0
ATL -2.5
ATL -3.0
No one every really knows. This is a probability game and there is never a 100% probability of a cover (regardless of what other handicappers claim).
Trusting the model comes by back-testing and making picks in real life like what you and I are doing. I do think that picking games is 80% science and 20% art. You have to know your models well enough to know when they work, when they don't, what games seem like a trap, which players are injured, how the weather can affect the game, etc.
Great week last week! My picks compared to yours are:
TEN +9
PHI -14
DEN +4
I'm not sure I will bet any of the 3 above. I have a feeling NE will cover but my numbers say other-wise; they just haven't been very consistent this year.
PHI's defense is not as good as NYG's, but I believe it's good enough to cover the points vs OAK.
SD is my team so I don't bet against them, but the numbers say DEN covers.
Good luck this week!
I agree with the Broncos pick.
Sadly, this is my last week of NFL handicapping, at least for a while. I'm leaving the country for a job.
Good luck/
Thanks for the correction, I meant to say Westbrook.
I wish you the best! What country are you going to? They have internet, hopefully, which at least lets you keep track of how well we are doing over here week by week.
Best,
Jaime
I need this Titans win this week to even get close to the 7:5 we talked about!
Good luck.
Then there's the fact that my accuracy in the late weeks has been horrible for the past 3 or 4 years.. so, I'm probably done for the season.
Next year, though, I shall be ready to provide more tasty fadeable picks!
Personally, I went 0-3 today. Nothing looked like I expected.
Go Broncos!