Afterthoughts Week 16

This model does not work. I have to go back to the drawing board and come up with a better way to predict sides against the point spread. I give a lot of credit to the people at Vegas putting the point spread, they know how to make the outcome almost random. I have always thought and still believe that there are games out there that are not well aligned, that the point spread is off. It is easy to see those games after the fact, but not right before the game starts. I do also think that 3 or 4 picks a week is a lot, if a system were to find these opportunities, they would be less than two games a week, if that.

What am I going to do now? I do not know. Hopefully I will have a good run in the playoffs (like I did last year) and push up the percentage to at least 55. In the off-season is back to crunching the numbers and searching for data and different methodologies to test. If by back-testing a strategy I get above 57% say, then I will introduce it next year. If I find a couple of strategies, then I might post picks from all 3 strategies and we shall all witness the best one. Still, I have a lot of work to do. For now, I will finish this season with the same methodology I described before.