2008 NFL Week 14 Picks
NFL picks is very much like marketing, half science and half art. You use statistics to uncover opportunities and patterns out of all the overwhelming amount of information. With this information in hand, you use 'art' or experience you have had with the numbers to make wise decisions.
Injuries in major positions bias my point spread predictions. It is better to stay away from volatile teams with recent roster changes in RB, QB, or LB positions. This is why this week, although I personally like Tennessee to roll over Cleveland, and the model also predicts they will do so, we stay away and wait for calm water. Of the other 3 NFL games with double-digit spreads I talked about in my previous post, I will stay away from all of them. Although I think St. Louis might be a good bet with Steven Jackson back in the lineup, my model cannot pick up his presence well and predicts Arizona will barely cover. Enough about what my model does not pick. Here are the opportunities it found and that I as an experienced handicapper, agree with its pick.
RESULT: 1-3 No Good
Week 14 NFL pick-les of the week:
Pick 1: VISITING FAVORITES Jets -4
Jets lose one game and suddenly their spread drops to 4 points? They were favorites to the Rams on the road by 9 and at home with Denver by 8. This team is thinking Super Bowl and San Francisco is thinking next year. Favre, pass it to your teammates and you shall cover.
Pick 3: HOME FAVORITES Da Bears -6
Wake up and smell the coffee Orton. You have a decent defense, an awesome running back, and a great wide receiver/punt returner. If you have to go to your old ways of handing off the ball all game, do it!
Pick 4: VISITING UNDERDOGS Atlanta +3
They beat them once and they'll beat them again. Brees, they have you all figured out.
Pick 5: HOME FAVORITES Green Bay -6
So the Texans beat the Jaguars, Browns, Bengals, and Lions, big deal. Packers have had a tougher schedule and have crushed the Bears, Colts, and Seahawks.
I forgot to post the week's prediction table. I will do so this week if you read more. Good luck!
NY JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO
4
7.1
59%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
7.5
14.5
57%
JACKSONVILLE @ CHICAGO
-6.5
-9.5
56%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS
-3
0.3
56%
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS
-14
-8.1
54%
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH
-3
3.5
52%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA
-3
2.9
52%
WASHINGTON @ BALTIMORE
-5.5
-4.8
51%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER
-10
-16.1
50%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO
-10
-13.5
50%
NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE
5
8.0
49%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS
-7.5
-5.7
49%
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY
-6
-11.7
49%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA
-14
-15.1
NA
CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE
-14
NA
NA
MIAMI @ BUFFALO
-1
-3.1
37%
Injuries in major positions bias my point spread predictions. It is better to stay away from volatile teams with recent roster changes in RB, QB, or LB positions. This is why this week, although I personally like Tennessee to roll over Cleveland, and the model also predicts they will do so, we stay away and wait for calm water. Of the other 3 NFL games with double-digit spreads I talked about in my previous post, I will stay away from all of them. Although I think St. Louis might be a good bet with Steven Jackson back in the lineup, my model cannot pick up his presence well and predicts Arizona will barely cover. Enough about what my model does not pick. Here are the opportunities it found and that I as an experienced handicapper, agree with its pick.
RESULT: 1-3 No Good
Week 14 NFL pick-les of the week:
Pick 1: VISITING FAVORITES Jets -4
Jets lose one game and suddenly their spread drops to 4 points? They were favorites to the Rams on the road by 9 and at home with Denver by 8. This team is thinking Super Bowl and San Francisco is thinking next year. Favre, pass it to your teammates and you shall cover.
Pick 3: HOME FAVORITES Da Bears -6
Wake up and smell the coffee Orton. You have a decent defense, an awesome running back, and a great wide receiver/punt returner. If you have to go to your old ways of handing off the ball all game, do it!
Pick 4: VISITING UNDERDOGS Atlanta +3
They beat them once and they'll beat them again. Brees, they have you all figured out.
Pick 5: HOME FAVORITES Green Bay -6
So the Texans beat the Jaguars, Browns, Bengals, and Lions, big deal. Packers have had a tougher schedule and have crushed the Bears, Colts, and Seahawks.
I forgot to post the week's prediction table. I will do so this week if you read more. Good luck!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Confidence |
|---|
NY JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO
4
7.1
59%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
7.5
14.5
57%
JACKSONVILLE @ CHICAGO
-6.5
-9.5
56%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS
-3
0.3
56%
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS
-14
-8.1
54%
DALLAS @ PITTSBURGH
-3
3.5
52%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA
-3
2.9
52%
WASHINGTON @ BALTIMORE
-5.5
-4.8
51%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER
-10
-16.1
50%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO
-10
-13.5
50%
NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE
5
8.0
49%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS
-7.5
-5.7
49%
HOUSTON @ GREEN BAY
-6
-11.7
49%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA
-14
-15.1
NA
CLEVELAND @ TENNESSEE
-14
NA
NA
MIAMI @ BUFFALO
-1
-3.1
37%
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