The Other Week 11 NFL Picks
Unfortunately, yesterday's game did not result as we expected but we have 2 picks to make up for it. The Patriots made a great run at the end but fell short of the game and the spread. The good thing is that the loss was just a slight dent on the bankroll. For Thursday's game I had warned about the Patriots' linebacker injury and that it should be considered in the percentage of bankroll to be used for the week. Hopefully, there is plenty left for these Sunday's picks:
Week 11 RESULT: 0-3 What happened?!
Pick 2: Pittsburgh -5
Last week the Steelers had the same spread against a stronger team and without their starting RB. This week Parker is back, Ben will play well to not lose the starting role and the defense will also help. The Chargers have been playing well lately, but Rivers will have to worry against the number one defense against the pass.
Pick 3: Atlanta -6
Denver is hurt both on defense and offense. Atlanta is unbeaten at home and those wins have been by wide margins (except against the Bears). I think Vegas has not yet realize that the young guys in Atlanta have learned a lot this season and can play with the big boys.
You can also read more and see the point spread predictions for each game. These were the two games that stood out to me as great picks. Other picks I considered posting were Philadelphia at -9 and Oakland -10.5. Feel free to comment and give your opinions on these games or others.
NFL Point Spread Predictions Week 11:
Week 11 RESULT: 0-3 What happened?!
Pick 2: Pittsburgh -5
Last week the Steelers had the same spread against a stronger team and without their starting RB. This week Parker is back, Ben will play well to not lose the starting role and the defense will also help. The Chargers have been playing well lately, but Rivers will have to worry against the number one defense against the pass.
Pick 3: Atlanta -6
Denver is hurt both on defense and offense. Atlanta is unbeaten at home and those wins have been by wide margins (except against the Bears). I think Vegas has not yet realize that the young guys in Atlanta have learned a lot this season and can play with the big boys.
You can also read more and see the point spread predictions for each game. These were the two games that stood out to me as great picks. Other picks I considered posting were Philadelphia at -9 and Oakland -10.5. Feel free to comment and give your opinions on these games or others.
NFL Point Spread Predictions Week 11:
| Game | Vegas Spread | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAN DIEGO @ PITTSBURGH | -4.5 | -6.7 | 63% |
| DENVER @ ATLANTA | -6 | -9.4 | 56% |
| OAKLAND @ MIAMI | -10.5 | -6.4 | 56% |
| MINNESOTA @ TAMPA BAY | -4 | -4.8 | 53% |
| HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS | -8.5 | -8.7 | 52% |
| BALTIMORE @ NY GIANTS | -7 | -5.0 | 46% |
| TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE | 3 | 8.7 | 44% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ KANSAS CITY | 5.5 | 7.6 | 44% |
| DETROIT @ CAROLINA | -14 | -22.8 | 47% |
| CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY | -5.5 | 0.7 | 48% |
| CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO | -5 | 1.2 | 46% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINNATI | 9 | 13.1 | 45% |
| ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO | -6.5 | -17.6 | 43% |
| DALLAS @ WASHINGTON | 1.5 | 0.8 | 50% |
| ARIZONA @ SEATTLE | 3.5 | 10.8 | 43% |
Comments
In the Philly game, the model is picking up a trend where the spread is heavily for the visiting team, the visiting team has the stats to back it up, but for some reason the home team ends up covering 55% of the time.
I usually bet the opposite, in this case Cincy, when the confidence is a bit higher. For example, I have noticed times when the home team is favorite by less than 3 points, the visiting team is on a short-term streak, the model predicts the visiting team to cover (because of recent stats), but the home team ends up covering 62% of the time.
I have not told you yet which of my picks I have gotten this way, I will start doing that from now on. Both picks this week are straight up winners, model predicting well for both Atlanta and Pittsburgh. What do you think of these 2 picks?
Good luck!
Here is what happened according to ESPN.