2008 Week 10 NFL Picks
RESULT: 3-0 Perfect!
Tough week for picks. My statistical model did not find many opportunities and those that did are somewhat sketchy. For example, it found Pittsburgh to win at home, but will Ben play? There is too much uncertainty if he doesn't and I would not recommend the bet. Also found the Jets at home against St. Louis. This game is off the table in many sites so if you can get -8 go for it, anything above that would be a scratch. There were 3 other games whose confidence was not as high as the ones I just mentioned, but that still are great plays.
Without further ado, here are Week's 10 NFL Spread Picks, back with comments:
Pick 1: VISITING UNDERDOGS New York Giants +3
If you think these two teams should have the same rankings, then the spread is correctly priced. If not, I would assume you think the Giants are slightly better, so does my computer prediction. Tthis spread should be either a pick or the Giants slightly favored.
Pick 2: VISITING UNDERDOGS Kansas City +15
This young team is getting tired of being slapped around. They are not the Rams or the Raiders, they will come out swinging. San Diego has scored well at home this year, but another +15 spread at home is highly unlikely.
Pick 3: VISITING FAVORITES Tennessee -3
Last week was Tennessee's first ATS loss, nothing to worry about. The Bears are heavily favored at home because of some 4 or 5 game streak. Pay no attention to that, Tennessee will crush them regardless of who throws the ball for the Bears.
Read more to see the table with the game spread predictions and its confidence (probability of the prediction being on the right side of the spread). Remember, a negative sign implies home team is favorite.
Tough week for picks. My statistical model did not find many opportunities and those that did are somewhat sketchy. For example, it found Pittsburgh to win at home, but will Ben play? There is too much uncertainty if he doesn't and I would not recommend the bet. Also found the Jets at home against St. Louis. This game is off the table in many sites so if you can get -8 go for it, anything above that would be a scratch. There were 3 other games whose confidence was not as high as the ones I just mentioned, but that still are great plays.
Without further ado, here are Week's 10 NFL Spread Picks, back with comments:
Pick 1: VISITING UNDERDOGS New York Giants +3
If you think these two teams should have the same rankings, then the spread is correctly priced. If not, I would assume you think the Giants are slightly better, so does my computer prediction. Tthis spread should be either a pick or the Giants slightly favored.
Pick 2: VISITING UNDERDOGS Kansas City +15
This young team is getting tired of being slapped around. They are not the Rams or the Raiders, they will come out swinging. San Diego has scored well at home this year, but another +15 spread at home is highly unlikely.
Pick 3: VISITING FAVORITES Tennessee -3
Last week was Tennessee's first ATS loss, nothing to worry about. The Bears are heavily favored at home because of some 4 or 5 game streak. Pay no attention to that, Tennessee will crush them regardless of who throws the ball for the Bears.
Read more to see the table with the game spread predictions and its confidence (probability of the prediction being on the right side of the spread). Remember, a negative sign implies home team is favorite.
| Game | Vegas Spread | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST LOUIS @ NY JETS | -8.5 | -11 | 58% |
| DENVER @ CLEVELAND | -3 | -3.5 | 50% |
| GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | -2.5 | 4.5 | 56% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ PITTSBURGH | -3 | -7.9 | 57% |
| NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA | -3 | 2.5 | 57% |
| CAROLINA @ OAKLAND | 9.5 | 19.4 | 49% |
| BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON | 1 | 10.9 | 50% |
| SEATTLE @ MIAMI | -8.5 | -8.1 | 50% |
| TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO | 3 | 6.5 | 58% |
| KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO | -15 | -9 | 59% |
| BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND | -4 | -3 | 46% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT | 7 | 7.4 | 49% |
| NEW RLEANS @ ATLANTA | -1 | -5 | 53% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | -9.5 | -16.9 | 54% |
Comments
I am afraid it will turn around soon and hurt me this week. Hopefully not.
Thanks for your comment, let's see what happens.
Overall, i absolutely adore this site and the idea behind it, been trying to get the motivation for a similar idea for quite some time. Keep up the good work!