2008 Week 3 NFL Picks
NFLpickles.com is in a pickle. So far, my NFL statistical picks methodology have not given you any correct picks. I am disappointed as much as you are, but do not lose hope. If things do not start to turn around after week 5, that is, if my record from week 5 to week 16 is not above 60% then NFLpickles should cease to exist or at lease reinvent itself. Be patient, weeks will pass by, data will come in, and the record should improve. I will separate my ATS record as prior week 5 and post week 5 and you will see the power that a robust NFL statistical model can do.
This week I am using the model very cautiously. Also, I am using the "pick confidence" measure my model produces more freely, meaning, that even at 55% confidence, I would consider the pick. Also, I am weighting recent games much more heavily than I usually do in later weeks. Prior knowledge of team roster changes is also used for this week to determine how accurate predictions are. I am confident in this week's picks, I feel a comeback. Here are the Statistics Beats the Point Spread Week 3 picks.
RESULT: 3-1
Pick 1: Cleveland +2.5
Unbelievable that Cleveland is not even favorite in this game. Do you remember last year's Baltimore team? With rookie QB Flacco starting for Baltimore is hard to tell, but he wasn't so impressive in his first game (1 TD, 51% completion, 64 QB rating). Baltimore has played only one game this year, against Cincinnati, and won by just a TD. Cleveland on the other hand, has had a much tougher schedule so far; losing against Dallas (10-28) and barely to Pittsburgh (6-10). Baltimore has good defense and Cleveland has yet to show they can score, so I do not see Cleveland blowing Baltimore away, but probably winning the game. This might be a better Under bet, but I have not statistically explored Over/Under bets just yet.
Pick 2: Atlanta -5
Kansas City is a mess. They lost by 15 against Oakland at home, do not have a quarterback, and their running game is not producing. This spread would have been a lot higher had Atlanta not lost by more than 10 to Tampa Bay last week. Tampa really shut the Falcon's running game, something Kansas City will not be able to do. Talking about Tampa shutting the running game, see my next pick. Anyways, model predicts Atlanta by 7, I am still confident, I believe the young guys in Atlanta will come out swinging.
Pick 3: Tampa Bay +3
Kyle Orton is just not going to cut it. How many games does the guy have to suck so the Bears realize he is not NFL quality? Bears field position will deteriorate since Tampa will be kicking the ball to the punt retuner, not Hester. Bears should not even be favorites in this game. Model predicts Tampa by 3, but they are underdogs by 3. This is what's going to happen: Tampa stops the run (Mr. Forte is good but cannot do everything, teams needs to have a passing game), Orton can't throw, defense gets tired, Tampa wins.
Pick 4: Dallas -3
I probably should not publish this pick. First, the confidence is low and secondly, Green Bay has a new quarterback. If one assumes that Rogers is as good or less than Favre, the pick is good. If Rogers keeps playing the way he has, better than Favre last year, then the pick is of no use. This is a big roster change that my model does not take into account, just yet. The only reason I am sticking with the pick is that Rogers has yet to face a playoff contending team. Minnesota and Detroit are not quite the challenge that the Packers will face in playoff contention. Dallas had a great match up last week and they looked great out there. I like Dallas this year, it might be their year, we'll see.
This week I am using the model very cautiously. Also, I am using the "pick confidence" measure my model produces more freely, meaning, that even at 55% confidence, I would consider the pick. Also, I am weighting recent games much more heavily than I usually do in later weeks. Prior knowledge of team roster changes is also used for this week to determine how accurate predictions are. I am confident in this week's picks, I feel a comeback. Here are the Statistics Beats the Point Spread Week 3 picks.
RESULT: 3-1
Pick 1: Cleveland +2.5
Unbelievable that Cleveland is not even favorite in this game. Do you remember last year's Baltimore team? With rookie QB Flacco starting for Baltimore is hard to tell, but he wasn't so impressive in his first game (1 TD, 51% completion, 64 QB rating). Baltimore has played only one game this year, against Cincinnati, and won by just a TD. Cleveland on the other hand, has had a much tougher schedule so far; losing against Dallas (10-28) and barely to Pittsburgh (6-10). Baltimore has good defense and Cleveland has yet to show they can score, so I do not see Cleveland blowing Baltimore away, but probably winning the game. This might be a better Under bet, but I have not statistically explored Over/Under bets just yet.
Pick 2: Atlanta -5
Kansas City is a mess. They lost by 15 against Oakland at home, do not have a quarterback, and their running game is not producing. This spread would have been a lot higher had Atlanta not lost by more than 10 to Tampa Bay last week. Tampa really shut the Falcon's running game, something Kansas City will not be able to do. Talking about Tampa shutting the running game, see my next pick. Anyways, model predicts Atlanta by 7, I am still confident, I believe the young guys in Atlanta will come out swinging.Pick 3: Tampa Bay +3
Kyle Orton is just not going to cut it. How many games does the guy have to suck so the Bears realize he is not NFL quality? Bears field position will deteriorate since Tampa will be kicking the ball to the punt retuner, not Hester. Bears should not even be favorites in this game. Model predicts Tampa by 3, but they are underdogs by 3. This is what's going to happen: Tampa stops the run (Mr. Forte is good but cannot do everything, teams needs to have a passing game), Orton can't throw, defense gets tired, Tampa wins.
Pick 4: Dallas -3
I probably should not publish this pick. First, the confidence is low and secondly, Green Bay has a new quarterback. If one assumes that Rogers is as good or less than Favre, the pick is good. If Rogers keeps playing the way he has, better than Favre last year, then the pick is of no use. This is a big roster change that my model does not take into account, just yet. The only reason I am sticking with the pick is that Rogers has yet to face a playoff contending team. Minnesota and Detroit are not quite the challenge that the Packers will face in playoff contention. Dallas had a great match up last week and they looked great out there. I like Dallas this year, it might be their year, we'll see.
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